Have you noticed that more and more projects have started this year: new coin swap/brand upgrade/project merger❓

The answers behind many phenomena are hidden in the double-top market in 21-22

The fact we have to admit is that even if some tokens have certain profitability, their tokens are almost dead

📍"Died in the cold winter at the beginning of 22, died in the wave of the last bull market"

There is an advantage of doing new coin swaps. After pulling out the market, the historical trend is gone

This involves a principle of behavioral finance: reference point dependence

That is to say, when we buy a certain coin, we will naturally use the historical trend as a reference point for buying

Imagine that as a newcomer, I was cxed a coin by a big brother in a community, and I was charging U to buy it. As a result, I opened the historical K-line and found that this thing had fallen 50 times. Should I be afraid or should I think this big brother is ridiculous? /(This incident is adapted from a real event)

Of course, we cannot say that this is the purpose of upgrading and merging projects. We can only say that the vast majority (for example, the merger of Klaytn and Finschia did not involve the replacement of new coins)

As new coins continue to enter the secondary market, this will gradually absorb the remaining liquidity of old coins, thereby further strengthening the upper locked-in positions. From this perspective, it seems that the replacement of new coins has become the only way for new projects to revitalize

📍"The locked-in positions have not been lost, but have been artificially hidden"

From the perspective of pursuing Alpha returns, the above These views are also one of the core reasons for the previous popular market argument of [speculating on new but not old]

We cannot understand the merger and acquisition events of Web3 from the business perspective of the traditional capital market, but if we only look at it from the psychological perspective of liquidity and incremental buying, some things become more reasonable

If we think optimistically, at least there are new developers doing things, and there is still hope

The most terrifying projects are those that have no actual progress, no three live people in the community chat for five days, and social media dynamics are intermittent, but the founders don’t know what philosophical metaphysics they are studying