Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author｜Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
In the second and third quarters when the crypto market performed poorly, the newly launched "VC coins" became the target of attacks. Such tokens usually have the characteristics of "low circulation, high FDV" and continue to fall as the tokens are released. At present, most tokens have completed several rounds of unlocking and have fallen significantly in several rounds of market crashes. So, have any tokens "fallen out of price/performance"?
In this article, Odaily will compare the financing data and market capitalization of mainstream new projects in the past year and the "VC coins" in the previous bull market to explore the answer to this question.
Top VC Coins Binance New Coins
Statistical objects: This section counts the top tokens launched at the same time on multiple exchanges, such as STRK (Starknet), W (Wormhole), etc., as well as new coins launched on Binance Launchpool for the first time. A total of 21 tokens are counted.
Data source: Market capitalization, financing amount, and current price are from Rootdata. Some projects have not disclosed the financing amount. Only the disclosed valuation amount is displayed here. "Highest price on listing" refers to the highest point in the 4H closing price in the Binance K-line data since the token was launched, ignoring the short-term highest price of the pin.
Judging method: Use total financing amount divided by current market value as the cost-effectiveness standard. The larger the value, the higher the cost-effectiveness.
The results are shown in the figure below. It can be clearly seen that the cost-effectiveness of several major "money-making" projects is much higher after falling by 60%-80% due to the huge amount of financing.
In addition, in terms of sectors, Layer 2, cross-chain and LSD Restaking are the most cost-effective sectors, while GameFi and DeFi are the least cost-effective sectors.
If we switch the evaluation dimension to cost-effectiveness and judge by the degree of decline, GameFi occupies four places in the top ten (Xai is a Layer 3 specifically for games).
If the game data is excellent and has a direct cash flow relationship with the token, the corresponding project can be preliminarily considered to have fallen out of cost-effectiveness.
OKX New Coin
The data source and evaluation method remain unchanged. The statistical object is changed to the projects that are first listed on OKX, and the data obtained are as follows.
Among them, ZKJ (Polyhedra) and PRCL (Parcl) can be ranked in the first tier in terms of cost performance, referring to the data in the previous section, while Zeus and Zeta are in the middle.
Comparison of old “VC coins”
In the last bull market, there were also many tokens that received a lot of investment. Here we recognize that these projects have survived several years of unlocking + bear market experience and their value has been fully priced in by the market and can serve as good comparison objects.
Layer 2 and LSD: Old and New
The first section mentioned that Layer 2 and Restaking are the "most cost-effective among new coins", so how do they compare to the old Layer 2 and LSD projects? Odaily's statistical results are as follows.
It can be seen that after experiencing multiple rounds of declines, the current cost-effectiveness of new projects in these sectors is equal to or even exceeds that of old projects. Before the next round of large-scale unlocking comes, there is a certain opportunity to buy at the bottom.
Full range comparison
We have also selected projects that raised funds and listed tokens in the first half of 2021, such as dYdX, Mask, Axie Infinity, etc., which are marked in italics and white in the figure below.
Overall, the relative value of old projects is still slightly higher than that of new projects, and most new coins still have considerable room for downward movement.
The downside potential of new coins is more obvious when sorted and compared by decline. As can be seen in the figure below, these VC tokens that were so successful in the last bull market eventually fell by more than 95% from their highest points (the statistical average is 93%), while the current average decline of new coins is only 78%.
A drop from 78% to 93% means there is another 68% drop (1-(1-93%)/(1-78%)), but this drop may require a long unlocking and bear market to achieve.
in conclusion
In summary, Layer 2, cross-chain and LSD Restaking sector tokens have fallen out of cost-effectiveness in the short term, but in the long run, new coins from various VC systems still have considerable room for downside.
Readers are advised to consider factors such as the project's revenue, whether there is a connection between the token and the project's revenue, and the subsequent token release ratio before making further decisions. They may consider short-term bottom-fishing or long-term shorting of tokens with low cost-effectiveness.
