Although historical data shows that the "September curse" may exist, it should not be the only basis for decision-making. The following are the positive and negative factors of the market in September:

Negative factors:

1. Mt. Gox repayment risk: According to Arkham Intelligence data, although Mt. Gox has returned most of the bitcoins, its wallet still holds more than 40,000 BTC, and continued repayment may put pressure on prices.

2. US government bitcoin transfer: In August, the US government transferred nearly $600 million in bitcoins related to Silk Road. It is not clear whether it is for custody or preparation for sale.

3. Key price pressure: Analysts pointed out that the actual entry price for short-term BTC holders is around $63,250. BTC has been difficult to break through this level since June and may face continued selling pressure.

Positive factors:

1. Expectations of interest rate cuts: At present, the market has high expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. If there is no surprise in the August non-agricultural data this week, it will further consolidate the expectations of interest rate cuts.

2. Election effect: Historical data shows that in the three months before the US presidential election, the probability of US stocks rising is 78%, which may boost Bitcoin's rise.

3. Miners’ selling pressure weakens: CryptoQuant data shows that the selling pressure from Bitcoin miners is weakening, which may form an upward momentum if absorbed.