I only need to look at one thing to tell whether a person can hold on to Bitcoin, and that is how he will view the rise and fall of the price of the currency. A novice will discuss with others for a long time because of a fluctuation of 1 or 2 points, or his emotions will fluctuate greatly; ordinary people will start to be ecstatic or anxious because of a fluctuation of 10 or 20 points, and keep hesitating whether to add to or sell; mature investors will only find some fluctuations when the price doubles or drops by half, but they still don’t feel anything after seeing it, and just do what they should do.
If you do archaeology, you can easily find some records of public investment in Bitcoin in the early days, such as xx Wan Ge, who began to record his feelings about the current price rise and fall every few days more than 10 years ago. Then I will tell you that 100% of these people sold out very early, because the frequency is too high and the psychological fluctuations are too large, which leads to a shallow scale of "high" and "low". For example, if an item costs 100 yuan, if you also record 102/95 and your mood fluctuates, the upper limit you can bear is between 200 and 500, and the breaking point is about 20 to 50 - you will sell out when you reach the upper limit, and you may not sell at the lower limit, but it will basically not attract your attention. At this time, if the price goes up a little bit, you will sell out and never pay attention to it again, and the longer you are trapped, the more you will sell all the more if it goes up a little bit - the degree of your anxiety to sell is proportional to the length of time you are trapped. The longer you are trapped, the more painful it is, and the smaller the rebound amplitude corresponding to the time you sell.
Don't say anyone is different, everyone is the same, even Musk is no exception. The fact that the big guys care less does not mean that they are more able to fight against human nature than the newbies, but that they have more assets outside of Bitcoin. I can easily infer the proportion of a person's investment in Bitcoin, his total assets, and when he will get off the Bitcoin from the proportion and frequency of his concern for the price of the currency.
This concept is called "the scale of time". The difference in the scale of time brings about differences in the definition of "upper and lower limits", differences in the focus on the density of things, and differences in thinking about the essence of things. If you figure out some things, you will ignore fluctuations, whether it is price fluctuations or industry fluctuations, but most people can't figure it out - this is definitely not nonsense. Take the encryption industry as an example. Once the callback period comes, whether it is Google search index or Twitter keyword popularity, it will drop by more than half, and in the bear market period it will drop by more than 90% - these are very telling, and when prices rise sharply, all the above indexes will come back.
There is another very interesting thing, that is, when cryptocurrencies hit new highs, it should be the time when risks begin to accumulate, but at this time people will ignore the risks and invest frantically, and even transfer millions to strangers just to grab a little quota for the initial token issuance; and when cryptocurrencies enter a price adjustment period, it should be a good value trough for learning and investment, and there should be enough time to replenish cognitive accumulation bullets, but people have all left the market, good projects and bad projects are mixed together, no one is interested in even the best things, and almost no one will think about making a layout or picking up leaks.
Buffett said that when others are fearful, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I am fearful. This is what he meant. He meant that you should go against the majority's views. But the majority is not always wrong. You can buy the opposite of the lottery. Villas don't have to be by the sea. Otherwise, investment would be too simple. For example, you knew that China's real estate bubble was huge 10 years ago, but if you bought at that time, there would actually be a long dividend period, because bubbles sometimes last for a long time. So if you go against the views of ordinary people from that time on, you may not win.
So what to do? You can only extend the time scale so that those small fluctuations do not exist in your eyes. That is, you should neither agree with ordinary people nor seek to deliberately go against ordinary people. Instead, you should ignore the judgment of all ordinary people and let them chatter and jump up and down. From the Fed's policy to the gossip about Satoshi Nakamoto, you should not listen to a word. Just follow the end of the industry and do simple and correct things. All the fluctuations in the middle do not exist for you. It's like buying Bitcoin 10 years ago and sitting in jail for 10 years. He became a big shot when he came out. Apart from this, no matter whether you are always consistent with ordinary people or always go against ordinary people in the process, you will lose everything.
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