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Weekly Review
This week, from August 26 to September 2, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $65,000 and the lowest price was close to $57,201, with a fluctuation range of about 12%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 59,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.56 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 970,000 pieces;
The probability of not falling below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Important news
Economic News
Analysts said that if the Jackson Hole meeting largely confirmed that the Federal Reserve was ready to cut interest rates in September, then Friday's inflation data solidified the scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut rather than a 50 basis point cut.
“Powell appears to be more dovish than his peers,” said Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour, economists at EY Parthenon, on August 29.
Nevertheless, unless there is a material deterioration in the labor market in the coming weeks, we still expect most policymakers to favor a 25 basis point rate cut in September. "(Jinshi)
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 24 was 231,000, which was expected to be 232,000. The previous value was revised from 232,000 to 233,000. (Jinshi)
With the Federal Reserve imminently cutting interest rates, the CFTC weekly position report shows that speculative traders are shorting the dollar for the first time since February;
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): In the week ending August 27, speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 69 contracts to 236,818 contracts, the highest level in more than four years.
According to the pricing of the interest rate futures market, the current market expects the Fed to cut interest rates four times this year, totaling 100bp, of which September, November and December are expected to be cut by about 33bp. In the next year, the cumulative rate cut will be 200bp, which means that there will be another 100bp cut in the first three quarters of next year.
Encrypted ecological news
According to Farside Investors data, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF had a cumulative net outflow of $12.4 million this week, with Grayscale ETHE having the largest net outflow;
This week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF had a cumulative net outflow of $277.2 million, of which BlackRock IBIT had the largest net inflow, with a net inflow of $210.6 million during the week; ARKB had the largest net outflow;
Russia will begin trialing cross-border crypto payments next week to circumvent international sanctions, CoinDesk reported.
According to Trader T data, the overall net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs in August was $83 million (the price of Bitcoin fell from $64,600 to $59,300);
The Ethereum Foundation announced a list of funded projects and community activities in the second quarter of 2024, with a total amount of over $8.47 million. In terms of community and education, it supported global conferences and hackathons such as ETH Beijing, ETH Tokyo, and ETHWarsaw.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Long-term participants' position structure
High-weight selling pressure
Americas purchasing power
(The figure below shows the long-term participants’ holding structure)
The holding structure of long-term participants began to recover, proving their optimism about the market outlook.
At the same time, there is no selling pressure from long-term participants in the market, and the buying demand of long-term participants has begun to pick up.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
The market's high-weight selling pressure level has reached a new low this year.
Compared with the previous time, it occurred once last year in August 2023, and then once in December 2022.
After that, there was a huge rise.
(Figure below: Purchasing power in the Americas)
In the medium term, purchasing power in the Americas has not yet fully recovered.
Market sentiment is low, and a huge opportunity is needed to stimulate market sentiment.
Mid-term exploration
3-6 Months Holder Behavior Analysis
Price structure analysis model
Incremental Model
Whale comprehensive score
Positive sentiment on the Internet
(The following figure shows the behavior analysis of holders in the 3-6 months)
From a historical perspective, holders of 3-6 months usually show a stage bottom, or are close to the bottom, when the loss transfer ratio reaches above 3.2%.
The current ratio is 4.8%.
Combined with the holdings of 3-6 month holders, there has been a recent decline, which may be the chip gap problem we are currently facing.
The number of people entering the market has been decreasing in the past six months, and this situation may be slightly alleviated after their conditions are improved.
If you want to explore the deep risks of the market, you may need to observe the accumulated DeFi liquidation prices since 2021.
(The figure below shows the price structure analysis model)
The current lower limit of fundamentals may be 47000-54000.
From a structural analysis perspective, there may still be some room in the market, but the downward momentum may have reached its limit.
(Incremental model below)
The supply of stablecoins is constantly growing, and the market potential may still exist.
(The following figure shows the comprehensive score of the whale)
The increase in holdings by whales has increased again, and the recent purchasing intention is relatively high.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
Online sentiment still needs to be adjusted and repaired, and the recent improvement may slow down.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor has entered the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
Last week's market was weaker than expected. After the derivatives risk factor hit the red zone, the market immediately started to pull back. Now it has returned to the neutral zone, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume and the proportion of put options both decreased slightly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume hit the bottom area again, and the market is brewing the next volatility.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility increased only slightly.
Emotional state rating: Neutral
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
The positive sentiment in the market (blue line) has not continued to increase, but the good thing at the moment is that the panic sentiment (orange line) continues to decline and has not risen with the market downturn.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has moderate outflow and BTC has moderate inflow.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC is continuously flowing out, gradually digesting the large amount of chips that flowed in previously.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
As the market sentiment becomes depressed, some chips gradually begin to flow into ETH and wait for selling.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power is being lost in large quantities.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
America is still losing purchasing power.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions have been losing a lot.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 56,000; there is a willingness to sell at 60,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 54,000 to 57,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000 to 68,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 54,000 to 57,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 60,000~66,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 56,000;
This week’s summary:
Summary of news:
The rhythm of the capital market has entered a relatively critical point;
There are generally two types of interest rate cuts in the United States: one is a preventive rate cut, and the other is an emergency rate cut during a crisis.
This year's interest rate cut is a precautionary one, and generally there will not be a particularly large room for interest rate cuts. However, if a black swan or crisis situation occurs and turns into an emergency interest rate cut, the room will become larger.
From the perspective of the U.S. capital market, the stock prices and performance of U.S. technology companies are well matched and not outrageous.
There is a bubble in the market, but it is not as big as most people speculate.
Therefore, we are still relatively optimistic about the market outlook, but the volatility factors will become greater.
On-chain long-term insights:
The structure of long-term participants’ positions shows that buying demand has increased;
High-weight selling pressure has fallen back to this year's lowest level;
There has not been much change in purchasing power in the Americas for the time being and it remains sluggish.
Market setting:
The pressure on the market has begun to dissipate, and the demand of long-term participants has begun to expand again. As time goes on, the supply and demand imbalance caused by the halving effect will begin to produce a buying squeeze again, which will become more and more obvious as time goes by.
It takes some opportunity to detonate.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The loss reduction of 3-6 month holders reached a historically high level;
The fundamental lower limit may be 47,000-54,000;
The supply of stablecoins is growing;
The willingness of whales to buy has increased;
The recent online sentiment still needs to be repaired.
Market setting:
Wandering, Accumulation
The market pressure has been released to its limit and is currently hovering in a confused stage, but it is also accumulating.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor has entered the neutral zone and the risk is moderate.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of the exchange shows a moderate outflow of BTC and a moderate inflow of BTC.
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power is being lost in large quantities.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 56,000 and a willingness to sell at 60,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.
Market setting:
Overall, market sentiment is neutral, and short-term continuous shocks and fluctuations are no longer important. At present, we only need to continue to pay attention to the short-term holder cost line (around 63K).
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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