A sneak peek at this week's major events
This Friday's unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data are worth paying attention to, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held in two weeks. Judging from the current trading data, there is a 70% probability of a 25Bp rate cut and a 30% probability of a 50Bp rate cut. If the economic data this month is under great pressure, there is indeed a possibility of a 50Bp rate cut.
The cryptocurrency market is very weak. The market has been poor in September in previous years, and the trend in September this year is not optimistic. ETH is still the weakest, and now Gas is only 0.6Gwei, a record low. We have mentioned ETH's weakness many times in the second half of this year. Judging from the current situation, this situation has not improved at all.
This week's major events:
Monday, September 2
The US stock market is closed for one day
Wednesday, September 4
The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision
Thursday, September 5
The number of initial jobless claims in the US this week
The number of ADP employment in the US in August
The Federal Reserve announces the Beige Book on economic conditions
Friday, September 6
The US unemployment rate in August
The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the US in August
Speech by Federal Reserve officials
Crypto market outlook
The crypto market is very weak, and investor confidence is seriously insufficient. The IV of major maturities is relatively stable, and the medium and long term continues to decline slightly, while the medium and short term rebounds slightly. Option trading is beginning to move closer to the US election, and the IV of options expiring on November 8 is significantly higher than other maturities.
Currently, the medium and short-term IV is already at a low level this year, and there is still downward pressure this week. At present, there is no chance of a rebound in the ETH exchange rate, and the bearish ratio spread or cross-currency short exchange rate is very cost-effective.
