There are less than 200 days until BTC production cut. BTC production halving is expected to take place on April 25, 2024, when the block reward will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. There are less than 200 days left for halving. The US government avoided a shutdown at the end of September, and Bitcoin stood at $28,000 in early October. Last weekend, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East re-emerged, US stocks and Bitcoin fell, and gold and oil rose. There are always unexpected risks in gold. Is there a halving bull market? Before halving? After halving?
Back to the topic:
The UK Financial Conduct Authority has promised to take swift action if cryptocurrency companies violate the new promotional rules. Stricter financial promotion rules apply to cryptocurrencies from October 8. Hong Kong Treasury Department Xu Zhengyu: If NFT has the nature of "collective investment" or "securities", it must be licensed by the SEC before it can be sold publicly. If it is a collectible that only exists in digital form, it is not regulated by the SEC. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is preparing a public consultation on stablecoin regulation. Cryptocurrency research company Ecoinometrics: The difference between buying BTC and ETH in a bull or bear market is negligible. The price performance of BTC and ETH is very similar, whether in an optimistic or depressed market.
Ethereum core developer eric.eth said that Lido's 33% stake in ETH does not mean that ETH is in trouble. Although this is not good, the premise of a bad result is that more than 30 node operators of Lido collude with each other and ruin their own business. Even so, the social layer can intervene and fork out malicious Lido node operators and move to a new chain. The supply of ETH has increased by nearly 30,000 in the past 30 days, and the current average network transaction fee is 7gwei, or $0.24. Santiment data shows that more than 10,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges, the largest exchange outflow day since September 7.
Jefferies, a world-renowned investment bank, is the latest entity to recognize BTC as a "key hedging tool". In a recent report to investors, Jefferies emphasized that BTC's unique qualities make it a reliable means of protecting against inflation, on the same level as gold. Investment research company ByteTree raised BTC's market signal from neutral to bullish. BTC's recent trend provides a safe haven from the chaos of stock and bond trading during the difficult period of traditional financial markets. When interest rates peak and the bond sell-off ends, BTC will take off. If it can maintain the $25,000 level, it is very likely to be in a relatively calm bull market. Robby, co-founder of crypto asset trader Reku, said that in the third quarter of 2023, BTC dominance was 50.16%, up from 47% in the previous quarter, and medium- and long-term investors continued to accumulate BTC, especially in preparation for halving. Therefore, for novice investors, the fourth quarter of 2023 is the best time to start using the dollar cost averaging (DCA) strategy before prices rise further.
At the end of September, the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives passed a resolution to avoid a shutdown. In early October, the price of bitcoin stood at $28,000 several times. Last weekend, regional conflicts re-emerged, and bitcoin was temporarily suppressed. Among geopolitical risks, U.S. stocks and bitcoin fell, while gold and crude oil rose. Financial risks always have unexpected events and appear in unexpected ways. The U.S. unemployment rate in September was 3.8%, higher than the expected value of 3.7%, and the same as the previous value of 3.8%; non-farm employment was 336,000, far exceeding the expected value of 170,000 and the previous value of 187,000, but wage growth is slowing down. Fed Daly said: The slowdown in wage growth is a ray of hope in the latest report and will be welcomed by the Fed. The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields has reduced the need for another rate hike. The recent tightening of the bond market is equivalent to about one rate hike. In the past eight Fed tightening cycles, whether it was followed by a recession or a soft landing, the U.S. Treasury yield fell an average of 100 basis points after the last rate hike (currently, the 10-year Treasury yield is close to 5%). Yesterday, the Federal Reserve's fixed-rate repurchase facility (RRP) accepted $1.283 trillion. Last year, RRP sucked up as much as $2.5 trillion. At the beginning of the year, it remained above $2 trillion. Last month, it remained at around $1.5 trillion. In October, it had dropped to around $1.2 trillion. Most of the reduced amount went to take over U.S. Treasuries. After the rate hikes were stopped, U.S. Treasury yields fell and the amount flowed out to risky markets to take over U.S. stocks/billions of dollars, etc.
There are less than 200 days left before the halving of BTC production. CZ, CEO of Bn, shared his experience of the past three halvings: a few months before the halving of BTC (from now on), there will be more and more anxiety, hype, hope, etc.; after the halving, the price of BTC will not double overnight, and the price of BTC will hit multiple historical highs in the year after the halving. The old man's personal experience is that from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, Bitcoin will start to rise, experience a correction (the halving benefits are realized), and then there will be a real bull market. There are many "greedy" people, and they are flocking to Bitcoin, which has driven Bitcoin to rise before the halving. Attracted by the "million times" of Bitcoin's first halving cycle, the amplitude of the second, third, and fourth cycles has gradually decreased, and the trend has not changed. Greed drives speculators and investors to participate in the feast, and the accompanying story is the Fed's interest rate hikes and cuts/the soft landing of the US economy (GDP is expected to be as high as 4.9% in the third quarter)/the stock index S&P 500 breaks new highs when the interest rate is cut, etc. The recession is positioned in the story as the Fed's interest rate cut to save the market.
Looking back at the cyclical nature of bitcoin and the cyclical nature of the Fed’s rate hikes/cuts, the story has to be complete so that some participants will not miss out on the first half of this cycle. The old man will not miss the second half, because the second half of the bitcoin cycle and the Fed’s rate cuts often give rise to a bull market. #带你看看币安Launchpad #美联储是否加息？ #一起来跟单
