The bull market must be born in pessimism, then grow in doubt, mature in optimism, and end in madness.

Judging the trend of the interest rate cut and no interest rate cut in September

According to the current data from the United States, even if the interest rate is cut in September, it will be 25 basis points. After 823, the US stock market has now exceeded the expectation of interest rate cut (here, for large institutions, it is called expectation management, pulling up shipments). We see that the big cake went up for a day after the pin that night, and then went down all the way, including the net outflow of ETFs. Why? To put it bluntly, the institutions have already made a lot of money and left (the big cake has gone from 1.6 last year to 7.3 this year. The event bulls are all capitals that have been arranged in advance)

So why did the institutions start to withdraw funds before the interest rate cut? I don’t know if you have noticed that RMB has appreciated significantly to 7.08 in the past two days. Unexpectedly, the US dollar index also rose sharply, including the yen (I will just briefly mention it here, because it is time to settle foreign exchange in the second half of the year, and a large amount of foreign trade funds need to be settled, including the United States. In addition, the United States has expectations of interest rate cuts, so at this time, a large amount of US dollar arbitrage is defensive, because this money is too stable to make). In addition, the expectation of interest rate cuts has been copied for too long, from March this year to June, and then to September (the expectation of interest rate cuts has been copied, so institutions have withdrawn). This means that once the interest rate is cut in September, it will also fall. As for where it will fall, I won’t talk about the bottom here, but remember that it must be a staircase) If there is no interest rate cut in September, it must fall sharply, that is, a waterfall. It seems that everyone is not desperate and not so pessimistic, which means that the bull market cannot come now. Use your golden finger to make money to follow me and add likes for real-time updates. Thank you!