Recent Bitcoin trading has shown a trend of “buying in Asia, selling in the United States”
📊 The U.S. core PCE price index in July was in line with expectations, and the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up on Friday.
#Bitcoin 📶
👨🏻💻 Bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 since the deleveraging event in early August. According to CB Weekly, Bitcoin’s current price is 0.50 standard deviations below its three-month average, while the S&P 500 is 1.41 standard deviations above its three-month average. Analysts pointed out that Bitcoin’s trading range is narrow and it lacks the driving force for price increases, especially in the seasonally poor September.
🔶 Bitcoin faces resistance, selling pressure limited
Bitfinex analysts said that due to insufficient market liquidity, Bitcoin may have difficulty breaking through the resistance level of $63,900, and the current price is difficult to exceed the actual holding cost of short-term holders.
In addition, there is about $15 billion in potential selling pressure in the market, including 203,000 Bitcoins held by the U.S. government (valued at $12.1 billion) and 46,000 Bitcoins (valued at $2.7 billion) planned to be distributed by Mt. Gox. The report pointed out that although Mt. Gox plans to distribute $2.7 billion in Bitcoin through Kraken by the end of 2024, the impact on the market is expected to be limited. According to data from Glassnode, Mt. Gox creditors did not sell a large amount of Bitcoin in the last distribution, and most chose to hold rather than sell.
💡 Personally, I believe that the current market trend of Bitcoin reflects the dynamics of “Asian buying, American selling”. Pay attention to next week's non-farm payrolls report, which will have an important impact on the market. If the data is weak, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, which will benefit risky assets such as Bitcoin; if the data is strong, easing expectations may weaken. The market may fluctuate, and the probability of an increase is approximately 50%.
