Hello everyone, I am Xingzhou, welcome to my technical analysis channel. In this article, let’s talk about NOT, only the market, not the news.
Let's start from the decline on August 25. At the beginning, the volume at 4:00 and 8:00 gave a historical level of 7.5B, which caused subsequent panic selling. Although there was a negative line when closing, that is, a needle closing, it also means that there are buyers, that is, demand entering the market. These are based on the principles of buying and selling as one and effort and results as judgments.
The K-line from 12:00 to 16:00 is very normal. The K-line and volume are half of the previous ones, and they also correspond to the upper
But when it closed at 20:00, this K-line was very abnormal. Judging by the principle of effort and result, the appearance of such a large volume is already at the same level as the selling pressure during the decline. Logically speaking, shouldn’t it be reasonable for a big negative column to fall down?
Obviously, he did not, but instead closed with a very long shadow, which contains a lot of demand, that is, buying. It can be interpreted as a buying point for value investors to test the market for the first time.
Then at the close of 8.26 4:00, it showed an oversold rebound behavior, but it was obvious that the rebound strength was not strong. Why do you think so?
At this time, you can use the Fibonacci tool to draw the Fibonacci retracement sequence from the highest point K-line at 0:00 on August 25 as the starting point and 20:00 as the end point. You can see that the K-line at 4:00 on August 26 only retraced to the 0.382 sequence. 0.382 in the Fibonacci retracement can represent a weak rebound and the subsequent trend will most likely continue to be strong.
After analyzing the previous market with the help of Fibonacci, let's look at the structure. From the K-line at 8.25 0:00 to now, the high and low points are constantly decreasing, which can be regarded as the downward trend is still continuing and has not ended.
According to the nature of the structure, if the current downward trend is to be broken, the previous high point, that is, the high point of 0.00962, must be broken to be considered a subsequent trend reversal.
We know how to break the deadlock, but what should we do if it does not create a higher high or a lower low?
It's very simple. Now we have found the highest point and the current lowest point. Draw it and treat it as a key position. Then we can get a range, right?
At this time, we can operate within this range, just sell high and buy low. When shorting, as long as it creates a higher high than the previous high, stop loss. When longing, it creates a lower low than the current low, stop loss. This naturally presents a trading range.
That’s about it. In fact, it is not difficult to analyze the market. The article focuses on the three points of K-line, volume, price and structure. The rest is expanded with the help of other knowledge to make the analysis more reasonable and objective.
In general, as long as it does not create a new high or low, it operates within the box. If it creates a new low, you can chase the short position or wait for it to rebound and confirm before entering the short position.
This is the end of the analysis of NOT. If you have any doubts or opinions, you can discuss them in the comment section 🥳🥳
Just listen to one person's opinion, as the saying goes, "Investigating things leads to knowledge". Thank you for watching. This is a sharing channel focusing on technical analysis. See you next time👋👋
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