The media interviewed Wenpin Tang, who found the answer through mathematical calculations.

As blockchain technology transitions to a proof-of-stake consensus model, a pressing question arises — will these systems remain decentralized, or will they distribute rewards disproportionately among large players at the expense of broader participation?

Dr. Wenpin Tang, a leading researcher in the field of blockchain incentives, has used advanced mathematical models to analyze these dynamics in proof-of-stake (PoS) systems, and his findings highlight and begin to reveal the complex forces at play.

In a pure PoS chain like Ethereum, miners use their token balances to bid for validation rights, and transactions are not allowed between miners, and the winners can get more gold coins as rewards. This seems to favor large enterprises, but Dr. Tang explained that the situation is more nuanced:

The key point is that it will be different for large and small miners. For large miners (such as Binance or Musk), their shares will be stable, for example, if they initially own 10%, they will eventually be close to 10%. For small miners (such as many retail miners), this is not the case, and their shares will be subject to fluctuations. If they initially own 0.01%, they may eventually own 0.0001% or 0.1%, for example, the probability of going down is higher than the probability of going up.

Therefore, while the giants remain stable in this pure PoS system, small miners face huge fluctuations and a long-term trend of losing stake. Dr. Tang pointed out that this may lead to a greater reliance on large validators for blockchain maintenance.

However, introducing trading into the ecosystem has far-reaching consequences. When miners can trade tokens, new dynamics emerge. Dr. Tang modeled a “market impact” approach, where selling lowers the price and buying raises it. The math then showed that trading forces decentralization over time.

However, this assumes that there is a “homogeneous” set of miners validating the network, meaning that all are taking actions to optimize their own position. “The analysis assumes that miners have the same incentives and information,” Dr. Tang said, “but the reality is much messier.”

It is also important to go beyond the perfect rationality assumed in most models. “Real decisions come from ‘feelings,’ not calculated optimization,” Tang explains. “This messy collective behavior needs to be studied.”

In other words, human emotions shape incentives, and different incentives create heterogeneity in the mining population that is difficult to explain with pure mathematics. So while Dr. Tang's equations provide directional insights, real-world human behavior drives the ultimate outcomes. Dr. Tang uses the term "bounded rationality," meaning rational thinking that is still "limited" by human weaknesses and motivations.

Here, Dr. Tang believes that machine learning plays an important role in analyzing a large number of idiosyncrasies of different participants on the blockchain. It can cluster and analyze different miner behaviors and knowledge. The insights gained will help protocol design better promote decentralization.

The interaction between theory and practice led Tang to conclude:

“Well-constructed PoS systems have the potential to decentralize wealth. But achieving this requires careful calibration of reward and transaction parameters, always taking into account human imperfections.”

While a fully decentralized web remains an ideal goal, Dr. Tang’s research offers hope that these goals can be achieved through careful design considerations. Importantly, it demonstrates a model moving in a favorable direction and provides at least a partial framework for sustainable network design.

Yet mathematical models alone are not enough to tell the whole story. Maintaining broad participation requires a deep understanding of miners’ behaviors and motivations. By combining theoretical and practical insights, blockchains may deliver on their promise of fair access and distributed trust. But the path forward requires acknowledging social and cognitive nuances beyond pure technology. #权益证明   #去中心化