From a macro perspective, interest rate cuts are a hot topic in the current market. Simply put, the United States has an interest rate cut cycle every 10 years or so, such as in 1989, 2000, 2007 and 2019. There are several rules here that we have to pay attention to:

During the interest rate cut period, the US stock market will inevitably plummet: the decline in 1989 and 2019 was about 32%, and in 2000 and 2007, it directly triggered the crisis, with a decline of more than 50%. A soft landing is fine, but if it is a hard landing, the market will really fall terribly.

US stocks usually do not peak at the first interest rate cut: they usually peak around the second and third interest rate cuts, except for the time in 2000, when the stock index had already fallen sharply before the emergency interest rate cut began.

Since 2017, Bitcoin has never been spared during the Nasdaq crash: almost every time it falls with the US stock market. However, after the interest rate cut, the index usually ushered in a wave of big gains.

In summary, in this round of interest rate cuts, we must be alert to the risk of Bitcoin falling due to the decline of US stocks. Although the market now interprets this interest rate cut as defensive rather than due to recession, the law of history cannot be ignored. When the interest rate cut really begins, we must carefully study the data from all aspects and try to make the most objective judgment.