"Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested by the French government, and the price of the platform's token Ton fell by 20%. Many people were seen on the official website either increasing their positions to buy at the bottom or continuing to short. What will happen next?"
1⃣. Gain freedom through negotiation and payment of bail: Pavle’s legal team negotiated with France and reached some kind of bail agreement, and he could be temporarily free by paying a deposit.
There may be negotiations for further legal proceedings to try to get certain charges reduced or dropped.
This is especially likely to be the case when the French government wants to express some information through this incident, with the intention of demonstrating, but does not want to cause a diplomatic dispute. The price of $Ton will quickly rebound to its original position.
2⃣. Diplomatic pressure and negotiations: The Russian government conducted diplomatic negotiations with France to ensure Durov’s release and demand his return to Russia.
Although Pavel has left Russia and become a French citizen, as the CEO of Telegram, he is involved in many things and is a key figure.
At present, when the relationship between Russia and France is already tense due to other reasons, some exchange conditions may be involved, and the TON price will rise.
3. Further crackdown: If the French authorities believe that there are systemic problems with the Telegram platform and Pavel’s arrest is the starting point of the investigation, there may be further legal actions against other Telegram executives or employees.
This could include summonses, interrogations, and even more arrests, especially if they believe that Telegram has failed to do enough to prevent illegal activity on the platform. In this case, the case will enter a formal judicial process and Pavel will remain in France for a long time to stand trial, face a long prison sentence, and engage in a lengthy defense by a team of lawyers to win a lighter sentence or acquittal.
The price of $Ton fell further. If the situation becomes serious, it is hard to say whether the “$luna” incident will happen again.
4⃣. Public pressure and support from the cryptocurrency community: Many international celebrities and industry leaders, including Musk and Vitalik Buterin, have supported CEO Pavel on social media. The support is strong enough to cause public pressure on a global scale.
France is required to re-evaluate the rationality of its actions, and the cryptocurrency community will launch large-scale protests and support activities, including solidarity, fundraising activities, and even other means to boycott France and related institutions. Global users and companies may be called upon to boycott France economically, including stopping investment in France and reducing business in France.
The further development of the situation depends on the country's diplomatic game, the policies of the legal team and the reaction of the international community. The development of events in the next few weeks will be very critical. The cryptocurrency market is slowly warming up. At this time point, if some black swan events occur again, the impact on the currency circle will still be relatively large.
