Is the US Economy Headed for a Recession? đ€
đš Concerning Trends:
- đ Rising Unemployment: The number of states with month-over-month unemployment increases has surged to the highest level since 2009, according to Trahan Macro Research.
- đ Doubling in a Few Months: The 12-month moving average of states with rising unemployment has doubled recently, reaching 20.
- âł Leading Indicator: Historically, this metric has predicted a nationwide rise in unemployment about 12 months in advance.
- đź Potential Spike: The jobless rate could spike as high as 5.5% in the coming months.
- đ„ Recession Warning: If unemployment hits this level, the US economy might enter a recession in 2025.
đ§ Whatâs Next?
With unemployment on the rise, the possibility of a recession looms. Stay informed and keep an eye on economic developments as we approach this critical period.
