ChainCatcher reported that according to Jinshi, CICC commented on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Conference:
It is basically clear that the September rate cut is a done deal, in line with expectations. CME interest rate futures price in a 76% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September and a 24% probability of a 50bp rate cut.
The Fed shifted its focus from prices to employment, essentially declaring victory in the fight against inflation (saying inflation expectations were well anchored), and assessing the job market as no longer overheated, already balanced, and with rising risks.
He did not mention how much the interest rate will be cut in the future. It still depends on the data. A 50bp rate cut is not realistic at the moment. We have to wait for the non-farm data next month. Powell also does not think that the rising unemployment rate is a sign of a worsening job market. He believes that it is mainly due to more people entering the labor market and a slowdown in hiring. His attitude towards the job market is to observe and be vigilant.
