$BTC Past rate cuts indicate potential crypto bull market catalyst — 21Shares
The US Federal Reserve is expected to begin lowering its benchmark interest rate in September.
Speaking at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, United States Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent his strongest signal yet that interest rate cuts are on the immediate horizon.
$63,948
rallied past $63,000 on the news, and analysts think further gains are expected when the Fed begins cutting rates.
Leena ElDeeb, a researcher at exchange-traded product issuer 21Shares, explained that previous interest rate cuts were good for the price appreciation of digital assets, as investors with cheaper access to loans took the opportunity to invest in risk-on asset classes. In a statement to Cointelegraph, the analyst gave a specific example of a previous rate cut at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic:
In March 2020, when they cut rates by 150 basis points (bps) to reach near-zero levels, the total crypto market cap increased by about 450% towards the end of the year, and Bitcoin’s price surged by 200% in the same period.”
ElDeeb qualified her statements by explaining that while past performance does not guarantee future results, the March 2020 interest rate cuts could provide a benchmark to compare the likely effects of the impending rate cut on crypto markets.
Levels of the M2 money supply as a market signal
The 21Shares analyst also pointed to changes in the M2 money supply — a measure of the total currency circulating in the global economy — as a potential catalyst for a Bitcoin breakout.
ElDeeb noted that Bitcoin’s price usually reaches its lowest point several months before the M2 money supply “bottoms out” before surging rapidly. This rapid price surge typically surpasses liquidity growth before pulling back in what the analyst described as a “mid-cycle correction.”
The analyst concluded by sharing her belief that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were a “key catalyst” for price appreciation amid the M2 money supply cycle.
