US Economic Outlook: Is a Recession on the Horizon? đ
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) has dropped by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a 0.4% decline.
Hereâs a closer look:
- 28 out of the last 29 months: The LEI has fallen in nearly every month since early 2022, marking its longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
- Drawdown Details: The LEI is now down 15.3% from its peak, approaching levels last seen during the 1970s and 1980s recessions.
- Historical Patterns: Previous instances of similar drawdowns in the LEI have consistently preceded recessions in the US economy.
Key Question: With these indicators, is the US economy headed for a recession? The data suggests growing concern, but ongoing monitoring will be crucial.
