Trump’s stance on cryptocurrencies may not be as firm as it seems.

By Ankish Jain, crypto.news

Compiled by: TechFlow

Was the absence of Bitcoin in Musk’s interview with Trump a deliberate omission, or does it indicate a deeper shift in Trump’s crypto strategy in the upcoming election?

When Elon Musk, the tech mogul behind Twitter X, announced that he would be interviewing Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on his platform, the anticipation was palpable.

The event was billed as a major conversation that attracted widespread attention from political enthusiasts and the crypto community. However, the meeting took an unexpected turn before it even got started.

For more than 45 minutes, the eager audience was kept in the dark as the interview faced severe delays. Musk later revealed that the interruption was due to a "massive DDOS attack on X," which he speculated was likely caused by "a lot of people objecting to just hearing what President Trump said."

Despite a rocky start, the conversation eventually got going. However, contrary to all predictions, there was not a single word about cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin.

This silence is particularly surprising given widespread speculation that Trump, if elected, could shape the future of digital currencies in the U.S. So, what’s going on? Does the absence of cryptocurrency talk indicate a shift in Trump’s stance or priorities? Let’s explore.

Analyzing dramatic events

As Musk and Trump's conversation unfolded on Platform X, it quickly became apparent that this was no ordinary interview. The discussion, which lasted more than two hours, was dominated by Trump, who often spoke at length — sometimes with a noticeable lisp — and gave Musk little opportunity to get a word in. Topics ranged widely, covering energy policy, climate change, immigration and more.

Early on, Musk and Trump discussed the recent assassination attempt against the former president. Trump then shifted the focus to his stance on increasing oil drilling in the United States, a view that directly conflicts with Musk's business interests, particularly Tesla's focus on electric vehicles and sustainable energy.

Throughout the conversation, Musk mentioned his past ties to the Democratic Party, suggesting that he had recently shifted to more conservative views. While the conference attracted 1.3 million listeners at its peak, many were puzzled by the lack of discussion of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency — a topic that seemed inevitable given Musk's and Trump's backgrounds.

Bettors at Polymarket, a popular predictions platform, were so certain that digital assets would be a key part of the discussion that odds of “Bitcoin” being mentioned were as high as 69% at one point. The cryptocurrency’s absence didn’t just surprise the audience — it had serious financial implications.

Nearly $5 million was bet on Polymarket predicting which words Trump would say, with "cryptocurrency" being the most popular. Despite the high stakes and widespread anticipation, the word never came up, leading to unexpected results for many bettors.

However, one Polymarket user named bama124 managed to predict this uncertainty with extraordinary precision. By accurately predicting the exact words Trump would — and wouldn’t — say, including omitting “cryptocurrency,” bama124 won nearly $1 million. The bettor placed bets on several key phrases, such as “cryptocurrency,” “bitcoin,” “Tesla,” and “censorship,” correctly predicting that the former president would not mention any of those words.

Trump odds fall on Polymarket

In the months leading up to the presidential election, Donald Trump seemed to be steadily heading toward victory. His odds of winning on Polymarket had been rising since May, peaking at over 72% on July 16, just after he survived an assassination attempt. At the time, Trump was considered the front-runner, especially after Joe Biden's credibility was damaged after the first presidential debate, which ultimately led to Biden's withdrawal from the race.

With Kamala Harris' entry into the presidential race, the dynamic has changed. Now the leading Democratic candidate, Harris has quickly gained support, and the odds reflect the shift. As of August 13, Trump's odds of winning on Polymarket have fallen to 46%, while Harris's have risen to 52%. The race has already attracted nearly $583 million in total bets -- three months before the election.

Notably, Harris’ campaign has received active support from key figures in the cryptocurrency industry. Influential figures like Mark Cuban and Anthony Scaramucci, who support Harris, plan to participate in a virtual event this week to further promote her campaign. In addition, a support group called “Crypto for Harris” has been formed to mobilize voters and enhance fundraising efforts within the cryptocurrency community.

Once the favorite candidate, Trump now finds himself playing catch-up as the election approaches and the political tide appears to be turning in Harris' favor.

Trump's mood swings?

During the 2024 campaign, Trump made several moves to garner support from the cryptocurrency community as part of his presidential campaign. Back in May, he began accepting cryptocurrency donations, marking a shift in his stance after previously expressing skepticism. In June, he specifically supported Bitcoin miners, expressing his hope that the remaining Bitcoins could be mined within the United States. Finally, Trump was a keynote guest at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in late July, further solidifying his appeal to cryptocurrency voters.

Yet despite these gestures, Trump’s recent interview with Musk suggests that his stance on cryptocurrencies may not be as firm as it seems. The complete absence of discussion of digital assets during the two-hour conversation has left many in the cryptocurrency community confused. Was this an intentional omission, or does it hint at a more ambiguous stance on the issue? It’s hard to tell, but the silence certainly speaks volumes.