Mild inflation data, price range fluctuations
Image source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/13/wednesdays-cpi-report-could-mark-a-change-in-thinking-for-the-fed.html?qsearchterm=CPI
Image source: https://hk.investing.com/
Two important inflation data, PPI and CPI, were released this week. CNBC said the data showed that the United States has passed the environment of super-high inflation. Moderate inflation data may mean that the Federal Reserve can turn its attention to other economic challenges, such as employment rate.
Data: PPI data, an indicator of producer inflation, showed that prices rose only 0.2% in July and were up about 2.2% year-on-year. This figure is now very close to the Fed's 2% target, indicating that market expectations for the central bank to start cutting interest rates are basically on target.
CPI data, an indicator of consumer inflation, showed a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9% over the past 12 months. Although this figure is much lower than the high point in mid-2022, it is still far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
In terms of market conditions: after the release of the PPI data at 20:30 on the evening of the 13th Hong Kong time, the market began to rise, with Bitcoin rising from 59,000 to around 61,500, until the release of the CPI data at 20:30 on the 14th, when the market began to fall, with Bitcoin falling from 61,500 to around 58,000.
Future events: The latest employment rate data will be released on September 6, the latest CPI and PPI data will be released on September 11 and 12, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be held at 02:00 on September 19, Hong Kong time. September will be a key node. If the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates, the market may bring a new round of surprises.
There are about 33 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.09.19)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Market technical and sentiment environment analysis
Sentiment Analysis Components
Technical indicators
Price Trends
In the past week, BTC price fell -6.72% and ETH price fell -4.2%.
The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week
The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week
The table shows the price change rate over the past week.
Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)
Over the past week, both BTC and ETH have been fluctuating downward in a range of dense trading areas.
The above picture shows the distribution of BTC’s concentrated trading areas in the past week.
The above picture shows the distribution of ETH's dense trading areas in the past week.
The table shows the weekly intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.
Volume and Open Interest
In the past week, the trading volume of BTC and ETH was the largest when they rebounded from the sharp drop on August 12; the open interest of BTC increased while that of ETH decreased.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility
In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when they rebounded sharply on August 12; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH both decreased.
The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average
Event-driven
The PPI and CPI inflation data were released this past week. After the PPI data was released at 20:30 pm Hong Kong time on the 13th, the market began to rise, with Bitcoin rising from 59,000 to around 61,500. It was not until the CPI data was released at 20:30 on the 14th that the market began to fall, with Bitcoin falling from 61,500 to around 58,000.
Sentiment Indicators
Momentum Sentiment
In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, Nasdaq was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.
The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.
Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment
Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 8.1%, and short-term interest rates remained at 6.7%.
The yellow line is the highest price of the USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table shows the average return of USD interest rate for different holding days in the past
Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment
Over the past week, the average annualized return on BTC fees was 0.2%, and contract leverage sentiment continued to decline.
The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average
The table shows the average return of BTC for different holding days in the past
Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.45, and the consistency between different varieties has dropped from a high level.
In the above figure, the blue line is the bitcoin price, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx ', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 's nx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation
Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 4% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 24% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 6% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 7% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.
上图为['bnb', 'btc', 'sol', 'eth', '1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 sats', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'ai', 'algo', 'alt', 'ankr', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'cake', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'idu', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'jto', 'jup', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'manta', 'mask', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'nfp', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'ordi', 'pendle', 'pyth', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'robin', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wif', 'wld', 'woo','xai', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx' ] 30 日的各宽度指标占比
Summarize
In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) showed a volatile downward trend, especially when the historical volatility and trading volume reached a peak during the sharp drop and rebound on August 12. The open interest of BTC increased, while that of ETH decreased. The implied volatility decreased. Bitcoin performed the worst in comparison with gold, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index and CSI 300, while Nasdaq performed the strongest. Bitcoin's funding rate continued to decline, reflecting the continued decline in market participants' interest in its leveraged trading. The correlation between the selected 129 currencies remained at around 0.45, indicating that the consistency between different varieties has declined from a high level. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies in the overall market are still in a downward trend. The market began to rise after the PPI data was released on the 13th, and then the market began to fall after the CPI data was released on the 14th.
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