News Outlook:
1) 13F report: 701 new funds hold spot Bitcoin ETFs
Following Wednesday’s deadline for filing second-quarter 13F reports, 701 new funds reported holdings in bitcoin spot ETFs, bringing the total number of holders to nearly 1,950. Hedge funds, pensions and banks continue to invest heavily in bitcoin spot ETFs as more traditional investors begin to embrace the asset class. Capula Investment Management, Schonfeld Strategy Advisors and Steven Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management also reported ETF holdings. Other buyers include the Wisconsin Investment Board and corporate market makers from Hong Kong to the Cayman Islands, Canada and Switzerland.
2) The total holdings of the US Bitcoin ETF on-chain reached about 926,000 BTC, accounting for 4.69% of the current total supply
According to Dune data, the total holdings of the US Bitcoin ETF on-chain have reached approximately 926,000 BTC, accounting for 4.69% of the current total supply. Since the launch of ETH, the net inflow has reached approximately 306,300 BTC, and the inflow in the past week was approximately 3,660 BTC.
3) Goldman Sachs: It is expected that three consecutive interest rate cuts of 25 basis points will be implemented starting in September
Goldman Sachs detailed the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting agenda in its report this week. The most anticipated speech is Powell's speech. Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a keynote speech at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on August 23 (22:00 Beijing Time on Friday). The speech will be live but there will be no question-and-answer session afterwards. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market may receive signals of confidence in rate cuts and data dependence. It is expected that Powell's information and off-site interviews will be similar to what has been heard in the past few weeks, that is, the Fed is now close to cutting interest rates, but the degree of easing will depend on the upcoming data. Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times in a row starting in September, and believe that the market has over-priced a 50 basis point rate cut at the next meeting after the weaker-than-expected employment data in July.
4) VanEck: Bitcoin miners shifting 20% to AI and HPC could generate $13.9 billion in revenue per year
VanEck said in a report that if Bitcoin miners partially transform to provide energy for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) by 2027, there is an opportunity to generate an additional revenue of about $13.9 billion per year. The report said that Bitcoin miners' balance sheets are usually bad, either because of too much debt, too many equity issuances, too high executive compensation, or all three. VanEck estimates that if publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies shift 20% of their energy capacity to AI and HPC by 2027, the total additional profits could average more than $13.9 billion per year over 13 years.
5) Donald Trump Jr. opens Telegram channel “The DeFiant Ones” for his crypto project
Donald Trump Jr. announced the opening of a Telegram channel "The DeFiant Ones" on the X platform to introduce upcoming crypto projects. In a post on X, he said: "There are many rumors about our crypto project. To know the real situation and stay updated with official announcements, join our official Telegram channel. Don't rely on speculation – get news directly here!" The name of the channel "The Defiant Ones" is consistent with a recent trademark application. In July, a company called AMG Software Solutions filed trademark applications for "Be DeFiant," "World Liberty," and "World Liberty Financial." According to its application, this third trademark is used to "provide financial information in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi)."
Market interpretation:
——BTC (emphasis)
Yesterday, it was pointed out that there was a high probability that BTC would plunge or fall sharply after its first high at the 1H level. The trend was the same as expected. During the first high, it encountered obvious selling pressure, and the price came down the same way it went up.
But from a medium- to long-term perspective, is the bull market still there? I think it is, because high prices are of great benefit to all giants, and the interests of the giants are the direction of the market.
The difficulty in operating at this stage is that the price has not fluctuated, so today I will explain the current opportunities from the perspective of the medium and long term and the short term.
Of course, we cannot operate the market based on our own subjective guesswork, as this will easily result in a market fine. So I will give you some operational ideas at different levels from various points below for your reference:
1. From a small-scale perspective: the price has repeatedly surged to the main control line of 62133, and has been fluctuating in this area. There is a corresponding rebound after each decline, indicating that someone is buying the bottom or supporting the market. I believe that the funds that can buy the bottom or support the market at this stage are the work of the main force.
At the current small level, the moving average of the long-term bearish arrangement is already close to the current price, and it can be resolved by a slight sideways movement. Therefore, the suppressive effect of the short-term moving average system will not be as strong as in the previous period. As long as the bulls make a slight effort, the price can be pulled up.
Short-term support is 58879~58370 (position defense range, insufficient rebound space, watch the market), the second support is 56383~55678 to support pending orders. The first short-term suppression is 60959~60514, and the second suppression is 61772~62510.
Note: There is no clear breakthrough or retracement in the current short-term structure. If you are aggressive and want to take a small position to bet on a breakthrough below the line, just hold on to the first support level. Do it normally at the second support level. (Do it in batches, without covering the position)
2. From a medium- and long-term perspective: The market after the big positive line (No. 8) is essentially bullish. The bullish energy still exists above 58,100, so there is naturally an opportunity for further rises. However, the local shape of the daily K line is rather ugly. I suspect it is a trick of the main force.
Judging from the long-term main control line, this point is 64649, so in the daily trend, there is a possibility that the price will rebound to the range of 63450~64649. If you want to bet on this rebound, you can defend the first short-term support level above and participate.
Note: The risks and benefits in the stage of market change are huge, so it is necessary to take the initiative to set stop loss when operating at this stage.
——ETH
I said yesterday at 2608 that ETH’s upside potential is 70~100U, with the maximum intraday increase of 81U, which just reaches the pressure level of 2689.
The overall trend of ETH is fluctuating in conjunction with the market. To analyze the trend of ETH, we need to look at the trend of the market first. In the short term, there is no need to be negative about the structure after the rise. The market still has the potential to rise slightly, and at worst, it will extend the time of market fluctuations.
If there is a small pullback for the first time, it will provide an opportunity to buy more at a low price. In terms of actual combat, the reference points are as follows:
Short-term support is 2631~2638 (watch the market), medium-term support is 2555~2528, short-term suppression is 2750~2769, medium-term suppression is 2875~2852.
Note: A sustainable rising structure has not been formed. Do not chase highs when the intraday rise is near the midline pressure level.
--SUN
The pressure level of SOL yesterday was estimated to be 147.1, and the highest point was 147.3. At present, the suppression effect of this range is still there, but there will be short-term opportunities in the process of the first decline after the high. In general, you can grab the rebound after a slight decline in the short term, and the medium- and long-term reference defense level is 137.8. The short-term support is 144.2~143.1, and the medium-term suppression is 152.5~150.8
If you want to dig deeper into the market but still don’t know where to start, search the public: Chain Prophet
