Without further ado, let’s get straight to the point.

Friends who have been paying attention to the inflow and outflow of exchanges recently will definitely notice that, except for V Ge’s crazy shipments on the Kraken Exchange through charity, other exchanges all showed a net outflow of ether, with the net outflow reaching a terrifying 4 million pieces a day. In addition, Sun Ge has accumulated nearly one million ethers in the off-site market. Logically speaking, with this level of chip accumulation, the market should not be in such a weak state of small positive and large negative, short positive and long negative. What happened?

In fact, this can be referred to the "Withdrawal Movement" in the Chinese Inscriptions section. At the beginning of the year, due to the listing of Rats on Sesame, a large number of retail and large investors recharged from the chain to the exchange and sold them, handing over their chips. As a result, several hourly rats spot crashed soon after, creating a trading volume greater than the total volume. The rats were excited and called for withdrawals from Sesame to avoid "data crashes". Nowadays, there are also large investors in Sats withdrawing from Binance back to the chain to increase control. The performance on the market is that although the current sats price remains low, it has a hard bottom. From time to time, there will be a wave of speculation and a surge of ten or twenty points to kill the shorts, unlike the VC market that continuously smashes the market and breaks new lows.

Funds headed by Sun Ge have always been the refuge of Asian Tian Ge dog dealers. They may not have much influence in the currency circle, but they are as famous as miners in the market. It is not difficult to speculate that Ethereum is now like Inscription, and the forces behind it are fighting for pricing power. When the big cake ETF was launched, the wind direction was "more following the trend of US stocks", while the Ethereum ETF had the wind of "limited impact of US stocks". The gods fought, retail investors were injured, funds fought internally, and the market was divided. Therefore, the exchange rate fell again and again and continued to hover in the downward channel. The future target may be 0.03, which was the start of the last bull market, which can be used as the starting point for the long-term layout of the spot.

Let’s talk about Tether printing 1 billion on Ethereum. I looked up the data of Tether printing this year, excluding Sun Ge’s printing on Tron, and found a certain pattern:

  • When the market reaches a brief peak, 1 billion yuan of money is printed. Representative examples are April 5, May 22 and August 13. After printing the money, there is a brief surge and then a free fall back to the bottom of the range.

  • 1 billion yuan was printed in the long-term bottom sideways area. A representative example was the four consecutive printing of 1 billion yuan from November 30 last year to February 6 this year, but the market consolidated in a narrow range and then soared from 2,000 points to 4,000 points.

Tether’s money printing is actually lagging data, because every time it is stated that “authorized but not issued”. Referring to the USDT market value on Tether’s official website, it is noted that each time the money is printed after it rises to a certain stage, it can be speculated that it is because the on-chain inventory is exhausted, and the off-site funds (other chains or cash) need new inventory for exchange, but it does not mean that there will be funds entering the market after the money is printed, but rather that there will be funds entering the market before the money is printed.

This explains why the price rose and then fell. After Tether printed money, the funds had completed the layout and pull-up, and even most of the shipment stage, and naturally left a mess for retail investors to take over. Similarly, printing money at the bottom for a long time shows that the funds intentionally lowered the price to collect chips, and then it will inevitably soar.

Original statement: BinanceSquare Token Economists Team

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