Bitcoin (BTC) may need a matter of months to stage a rebound and follow gold, one analyst argues.
In an X post on Aug. 13, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, said BTC price action still looks “promising.”
"Rough rule of thumb" sees Bitcoin lagging gold
Bitcoin has disappointed on a macro level in recent months thanks to staying rangebound while other assets head higher.
Prior to last week’s mass sell-off, both gold and United States stocks indices were hitting records — while Bitcoin failed to copy them.
Now, Capriole’s Edwards says, there may not be long to wait.
Uploading a chart comparing BTC price action to that of gold since late 2019, Edwards concluded that once gold begins a new trend, Bitcoin simply requires time before following suit.
Overlaying XAU/USD onto BTC/USD, it becomes apparent that the latency period for Bitcoin is around three months.
“As a rough rule of thumb, macro Bitcoin trends are often lagged behind gold by a few months,” he commented.
“Looks promising.”
Forecast sees "favorable" BTC price growth
XAU/USD hit its most recent all-time high in mid-July, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
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Looking toward the future, other popular Bitcoin market commentators suggested that the gold narrative could produce results for long-suffering hodlers next year.
William Clemente, co-founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity, highlighted another chart comparing gold price behavior following the launch of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2004.
“Gold had roughly 10-12 months of consolidation before marking up post-launch,” he noted on X alongside a chart from Quinn Thompson, founder and CIO of macro crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital.
“If BTC follows, confluence with other factors pointing towards favorable performance into 2025.”
Zooming out, meanwhile, both gold and Bitcoin remain in a privileged position. Even after its early August drop, Bitcoin remains the year’s best-performing macro asset, with gold close behind.
“Bitcoin and Gold are now the top performing major assets in 2024. Going back to 2011, we've never seen these two in the #1/#2 spots for any calendar year,” Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at wealth management firm Creative Planning, wrote in part of X commentary on Aug. 4.
BTC/USD is up 34% year-to-date, with XAU/USD at around 19%.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
