On Monday, the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.05%, the S&P 500 fell by 0.15%, and the gold price rose by 1.6% to $2,470 per ounce (the historical high was $2,483). Bitcoin fell by 1.6%. The gold price has been mainly affected by the Middle East recently, and the US stock market and Bitcoin are trading sideways. The US will release the CPI and core CPI inflation index on Wednesday this week.

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The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of Thailand said that the country has launched a regulatory sandbox program for cryptocurrency companies. The SEC said that the sandbox aims to "promote innovation and development in the efficient provision of digital asset services in a real-life context". Participants must pass the SEC's assessment of capital adequacy, work systems and management structures before entering the sandbox. Thailand is trying to find a balance between strengthening regulation and promoting innovation. Hong Kong lawmaker David Chiu said that Hong Kong is ready to strengthen its digital asset regulation in the next 18 months, marking an important step towards its mission to become a global fintech center. "The digital asset industry has made significant progress in the past few years, but Hong Kong is still in a very early stage. Hong Kong should establish a sound trading system and introduce legislation related to stablecoins as soon as possible." Musk tweeted that the beta version of the artificial intelligence model Grok 2 will be released soon. DL News said that crypto startups raised a total of US$2.7 billion in Q2, an increase of 2.5% from the previous quarter, and the number of financings reached 503, a decrease of 12.5%. It is expected that the number and pace of investment will continue to grow throughout the year. Bitcoincom reported that 99,308 BTC were transferred out of CEX in the past month, and CEX currently holds 2.67 million BTC, a new low since November 19, 2018. ETH daily burn has dropped to the lowest level this year, and the base fee currently fluctuates between 1 and 2 gwei. Only 210 ETH were burned on Saturday, a new low this year. The net ETH issuance on that day exceeded 2,000 ETH, and ETH showed an inflationary trend. On August 5, the burn reached 5,000 ETH, when the gas fee was about 100 gwei. Martin Koppelmann, founder of Gnosis, pointed out that the base fee is at a multi-year low, and 23.9 GWEI is required to offset the staking reward. Matrixport said that after the plunge last Monday, BTC prices rebounded, and BTC spot ETF funds are still flowing out, but some people took the opportunity to buy on dips, as evidenced by the rebound in the 30-day minting ratio. New legal currency funds have flowed into the crypto market, and investors are taking advantage of low prices, perhaps to prepare for the Fed's expected rate cut in September. Greekslive macro researcher Adam said that after a week of adjustment, the market has recovered from the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, and the Bank of Japan's recent dovish remarks have also given the market confidence. Although the market has been plagued by negative news, market sentiment is relatively optimistic this week.

This week's macroeconomic focus returned to the US economic data. The probability of a rate cut in September continued to rise, which also gave the market some confidence. If the inflation data this week gives the market confidence in a rate cut, the rebound will continue. QCP Capital said that last week's BTC trend was a leverage cleanup in order to set a record high in the fourth quarter. On Monday, the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.05%, the S&P 500 fell slightly by 0.15%, and the price of gold rose by 1.6% to $2,470 per ounce (the historical high was $2,483). Bitcoin fell by 1.6%. The price of gold has recently been mainly affected by the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine. Last week, the US ETH spot ETF had a cumulative net inflow of $104.8 million. The US BTC spot ETF has accumulated a net inflow of $17.341 billion since its launch, of which Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of $19.451 billion, BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of $20.317 billion, and Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of $9.722 billion. US regulators have postponed a decision on the listing of the US "altcoin" ETF applied by Hashdex. US regulators said they need more time to decide whether to list the ETF designed as a one-stop cryptocurrency portfolio on the Nasdaq electronic stock exchange. If approved, the Hashdex Nasdaq Cryptocurrency Index ETF will become the first diversified spot cryptocurrency ETF in the US market and the first US ETF to support alternative cryptocurrencies or "altcoins". The Kroll interface shows that the voting for the FTX customer claim plan will end on August 16. This Wednesday, the US announced the annual rate of CPI in July (previous value 3%, expected value 3%) and the annual rate of core CPI in July (previous value 3.3%, expected value 3.2%). The New York Federal Reserve said that the US one-year inflation expectation in July was 2.97%, the previous value was 3.02%. The three-year inflation expectation in July fell to 2.33%, the slowest increase since data was recorded in June 2013, and the previous value was 2.93%. About 23% of respondents in the bank's monthly sentiment survey said their most confident trade was shorting the dollar, the highest proportion so far this year and up from 8% in July, according to Bank of America Corp. The dollar's rally has fizzled over the past month as data showed the U.S. economy was losing momentum, prompting traders to bet on a big rate cut.

According to a Bloomberg survey of economists, nearly four-fifths of respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and the probability of an emergency rate cut before the September meeting is only 10%. The consensus among economists is that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at meetings in September, November and December this year and in the first quarter of 2025. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers said that U.S. politicians "always want to print more money and lower interest rates - stepping on the accelerator hard to boost the economy is a stupid game." Any emergency rate cut is unnecessary at present, and "a 50 basis point rate cut may be appropriate" at the September monetary policy meeting. Collins of the Federal Reserve said that inflation can be reduced without causing excessive slowdown in economic growth. If the data is as expected, it is appropriate to start easing monetary policy "soon." The probability of a rate cut in September has increased due to the discussion of the U.S. recession last week. The U.S. announced CPI inflation on Wednesday this week, and the core CPI expectation dropped from 3.3% to 3.2%. According to CME data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 51.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 48.5%. The short-term focus is on Israel and Iran. As a result, the price of gold rose by 1.6% to $2,470 per ounce, and the US stock market and the big cake were sideways waiting for the situation to become clear. From the perspective that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is greater than the probability of a US economic recession, the momentum of the US stock market and the currency market rebounding in the future is greater than the momentum of the recession. #美联储何时降息？ #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #加密市场反弹