$BTC I don't believe that any theory, technical calculation or financial analysis of any past moment can give certainty about something present and much less about something future in the fluctuations of cryptocurrencies.
I am a novice, I buy or sell in Spot and Market, I don't know all the possible strategies with the different instruments, but I could already warn that small and medium investors can make a currency go up with massive purchases, but only the large ones if they withdraw everything (capital and profit) can collapse its price. And when they do, small and medium-sized investors lose.
My strategy is very basic: buy low and sell high, no matter if the trend is bullish or bearish, and don't buy and stay in USDT if the fall is very abrupt or the rise is also due to the entry or exit of large funds.
And if I buy due to an abrupt rise, I get out as soon as the rise slows down, even if it continues to rise, before it collapses.
What goes up must come down, buy low and sell high, without ambition, it barely slows down.