I believe this is a topic that many friends are discussing.
I think the debate over the survival of the bull market cycle is getting more and more intense. "The bull market is over" and "the bull market is still there" each have their own reasons and logic. In fact, my point of view is that no one is wrong, and perhaps this is a debate that will never have a conclusion. Even if we look back in the future, we may not be able to tell right from wrong. For example, now we have different definitions of the period from April 21 to July 21, when BTC fell from 6.3w to 3w. Some people think that this is the beginning of the bull-bear transition, and some people think that this is a correction in the bull market.
Let's assume the following script:
In the election market at the end of 2024, BTC once again stood above 70,000 US dollars. In 2025, the US economic recession triggered a sharp drop in the global risk market, and then the next monetary easing allowed BTC to break through the previous high. So how do we define the current situation? Is it the beginning of the bull-to-bear transition, or a correction in the bull market?
In fact, what we are essentially concerned about is not the "bull market stage", but "do we still have a chance to escape the top". Of course, this "top" may be lower than the previous high, or even higher.
Some large-cycle data indicators may provide us with some references, such as the "cyclical changes in the proportion of LTH/STH's realized market value", as shown in the following figure:
This is a full-cycle on-chain data chart, covering all the time since the birth of BTC, without missing it. The blue line is the realized market value share of LTH, where LTH only includes 1-2 years of holding time. The red line is the realized market value share of STH, where STH only includes ultra-short-term holding time of 1 day-1 week. By isolating the signs of stored "wealth" in these two coin age periods, we can visualize this wealth transfer during the cycle.
At the low point of the bear market, the "coin holding group (LTH)" accounts for the main proportion of wealth, and the blue line reaches the peak of its cycle. At the top of the bull market, the "speculative group (STH)" dominates the supply side, the red line reaches the peak, and the price of BTC also reaches a cyclical peak. The intersection of the "wealth" conversion is also the key point for visualizing the BTC cycle.
Simply put, whenever the red line crosses the blue line, it means that the "main uptrend" phase is about to begin; at this time, the relative position of the red line and the blue line changes from "contraction" to "expansion" (as shown by the green arrow in the figure). Conversely, when the red line crosses the blue line, it usually indicates the end of the bull market cycle.
On March 9, 2024, the red line briefly crossed upward, and then crossed the blue line on April 15. I think it is likely that this is due to the short-term Fomo sentiment generated by the epic ETF, which made the ultra-short-term STH take over the distribution of LTH. But such sentiment comes and goes quickly. In the context of tight liquidity, it will not be able to be maintained without continuous hot money inflow. Historically, a similar phenomenon occurred in July 2016-November 2016, when the trend was interrupted for 4 months. And we don’t know how long this round will be interrupted.
However, judging from the brief breakthrough in just one month from March 9 to April 15, it may not represent the "main uptrend" stage of this cycle, and the current red line is "trying" to get closer to the blue line. Although it is a bit tangled, we can still believe that the day of upward crossover will definitely come.
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