I use the statistics of this decline as a review, and also check the preferences of bargain hunting funds, which may also be potential stocks in the future.
I have counted the representative currencies in several typical sectors, including high market value, MeMe sector, AI sector, BTC ecosystem, Sol ecosystem, Layer2 ecosystem, DeFi ecosystem, modularization and chain abstraction,
1. Decline
Overall, in this decline (calculated from the BTC price of 70,000), altcoins generally fell by 40-60%, with an average decline of 50%, which is a halving. The high-market-cap coins fell by 30-40%. As the saying goes, no snowflake can escape an avalanche. When BTC plummeted, no altcoin could remain immune, and the declines were basically the same.
If we have to make a comparison, the MeMe and AI sectors have seen relatively large declines in the altcoins. The reason is that the hype of these two sectors was later than that of other sectors, and they still have relatively higher gains. The Sol ecosystem has seen a relatively small decline, which may be related to the general optimism of the market. The decline of DeFi is also relatively small, but the possible reason is that they have seen a small increase in this round of market.
Among the currencies I counted, BTC had the lowest decline, followed by BNB. Wif had the largest decline, followed by zk and dym.
2 Rebound Strength
The research on the rebound strength largely reflects the market's preference for bargain hunting funds. One thing to note first is that after a 50% drop, a 100% rebound is required to recover the investment.
Overall, the decline of the copycats is basically the same, but the rebound varies greatly, ranging from 10% to 65%, which can reflect the strength of different copycats.
From the perspective of sectors, MeMe, AI and BTC ecosystems have rebounded the most, which are basically the three sectors that the market is more optimistic about before the decline. Among them, there is a special case in the AI sector, where the rebound strength of WLD is only 20%, mainly because WLD has a huge amount of unlocking.
The layer 2 sector had the lowest rebound strength, with 3 of the 4 major sectors rebounding by only about 20 points. This was a sector that the market was generally not optimistic about before the decline.
From the perspective of currencies, Tao performed best, falling 54% and rebounding 65%. SATs fell 55% and rebounded 58%. The ones with the worst rebounds were MKR, WLD, ARB, STRK, and OP. It can be seen that except for the special case of MKR, the remaining 4 are all institutional currencies with high market value.
Among the large-cap currencies, the best performer was SOL, which fell 42% and rose 38%. Among the large-cap currencies, the worst performer was ETH, which fell 40% and rebounded only 19%.
There is a trading strategy that believes that the coins that were generally not optimistic before the decline will adjust properly after a relatively large decline, so the subsequent performance will be better. This is also the reason why many people in the market will buy the bottom of ETH, OP, and ARB. However, according to the statistical results, regardless of the sector or individual currency, the bottom-fishing funds still prefer the view before the decline, that is, the market generally optimistic before the decline has a strong rebound, and the market generally pessimistic before the decline has a poor rebound.
3 From the annual performance point of view, the worst performing sectors are layer2 and modular. The decline this year is more than 80%, but the rebound is very small. Layer2 is the sector with the smallest rebound. The Sol ecosystem sector is relatively strong, whether it is the highest decline this year or the decline this time, it is relatively low.
4 I specially sorted out the uni, aave, crv, and mkr of the Defi sector. This is because a voice was heard during the decline. Because the market sneered at the concept coins of high-market-value VCs, people began to pay attention to the Defi sector, because they have good income every year, and the institutions have unlocked them long ago, the circulation ratio is also large, and the overall market value is not high. From the results, the decline of the Defi sector is not big, and the rebound is still OK. However, the differences between the four projects are relatively large. The best performance is that aave fell only 34% and rose 41%. And mkr fell 44% and rebounded only 10%. From the results, there is no particularly strong performance. It shows that concepts that were not agreed upon before the decline are not particularly favored in the rebound.