The crypto market is not peaceful, especially the market performance in the past week has made many investors feel the bloody market. BTC has fallen sharply for three consecutive days since August 2, from $65,000 to $57,000. At 2 pm yesterday, BTC finally lost the $50,000 mark after a continuous decline, and the lowest price fell to $49,000, and the market sentiment fell into despair. According to Alternative data, the crypto panic and greed index fell below 20, hitting a new low since August 2022 (extreme fear). BTC fluctuated around $50,000 for several hours thereafter, and it did not climb steadily from around $52,000 until 9 pm that day, rising strongly all the way to break through $53,000, $54,000, and $55,000. At 8 am today, it even rebounded to $56,000, and then fluctuated up and down at this position. BTC has ended its four-day decline, and finally stabilized its price performance from falling to rising.

ETH also rebounded from $2,111 to around $2,500, ending a seven-day losing streak. Altcoins also rebounded on a large scale, with TAO soaring by more than 33% in 24 hours, and ARKM and AAVE both rising by more than 20%. In terms of contracts, according to Coinglass data, the market had a liquidation of $173 million in the past 12 hours, with long orders liquidating more than $60 million and short orders liquidating more than $100 million.

Since the macro situation has deteriorated, it has affected the crypto market. Amid the wailing and panic, the market has rebounded. What are the factors that have affected it?

In Japan, the yen-dollar exchange rate rose 8% in a month, which directly affected the yen carry trade. Many investors in the market borrowed yen at ultra-low interest rates and then invested in high-yield assets. On July 71, after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time since ending its negative interest rate policy in March this year, arbitrage became more difficult, and quite a number of traders were forced to close their positions, causing violent market fluctuations. Yesterday, the Nikkei index plummeted 9%, and the Topix index triggered the circuit breaker mechanism twice, and market panic spread rapidly.

Japan reacted quickly. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki expressed strong concern about the stock market decline that day. The next day, he reiterated that he would do his utmost to manage the economy and finances, cooperate with the Bank of Japan, and calmly judge the current situation.

On the morning of the 6th local time, the Nikkei index rose across the board after opening, rising by more than 3,200 points at one point, surpassing the 2,677.54 points in October 1990, setting the largest increase in trading hours in history. Due to the large increase, the Osaka Stock Exchange was temporarily halted for 10 minutes starting at 8:45 local time on the 6th.

As for the U.S. stock market, after suffering a heavy blow yesterday, U.S. stock index futures continued to rise today, with Nasdaq futures up 2%, S&P 500 futures up 1.5%, and Dow futures up 1%.

After the U.S. and Japanese stock markets stabilized, it had a positive effect on the stabilization of the global capital market, and the crypto market also avoided a worse situation.

In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation of the entire network was $631 million, of which $376 million was for long orders and $255 million was for short orders. Whenever the market hits a recent high in open interest, the price of BTC falls sharply. After BTC recently broke through $70,000, the market contract holdings surged.

After the bloody cleansing that followed, the total open interest of Bitcoin futures contracts on the entire network has dropped to US$25.8 billion, a drop of more than 30%, and the funding rate has turned sharply negative. A large number of leveraged long positions have been closed, and the market trading volume has increased significantly, which may indicate that the stage of rapid market decline has ended again.

Jump Trading, which sold off a large number of assets, had a stablecoin position of 96% before 12:00 noon yesterday. In the afternoon of the same day, Jump transferred 26 million USDT to Binance, bringing its total deposited funds in 24 hours to 70 million US dollars.

Another address suspected to be Justin Sun has also transferred 210 million USDT to HTX in the past two days, and has withdrawn nearly 15,000 ETH from last night to now, worth about 36 million US dollars.

It is worth mentioning that the USDT OTC premium rose to 3.22% during yesterday's market crash, with a quotation of RMB 7.37, which also means that some funds in the market chose to enter the market to buy at the bottom.

In terms of stablecoin data, the data shows that the total market value of USDT has increased by about US$300 million in the past 7 days, which is not much overall, but it still maintains steady growth.

In addition, I know that many of you have seen the funding data. Yesterday, BlackRock bought a large amount of#ETHspot ETF, and even updated the data from the day before yesterday, changing it from zero to net inflow.

But if we look at the data from BlackRock's official website, there is still zero change. Of course, today's data has not come out yet and we have to wait until the evening. This is why I always insist on getting data from the official website. This does not mean that the data of funds is wrong, but that the data of funds includes pre-market and post-market data, but the official data of spot ETFs only counts transactions made on the trading day, and no transactions are counted in the statistics.

Because the holdings data that you want to see is the actual purchase, it would be better to look at the official data. Of course, there is a gap between the fund volume data and the official data, but it is not big. Let me give you an example. Because the funds are the transaction volume of users, what is bought is ETF, but ETF corresponds to the spot of ETH, so the transaction volume of 10 million US dollars in terms of funds does not mean that all ETH is bought at 2,600 (hypothesis). Only the official holdings data is the actual amount of ETH purchased. The time of publication of each ETF fund is different. The slowest is Fidelity, which is generally updated at around 21:00 Beijing time. BlackRock is updated at around 15:00 in the afternoon and at around 20:00 at night. Bitwise will update after the closing of the day, and Grayscale is the same, so this is the reason why it takes a long time to wait for one or two data.

Summary: Although the market has stabilized, confidence needs to be fully restored only after the macroeconomic situation improves and the Fed's rate cut is finalized. In the absence of new stories and narratives, the crypto market itself will attract more capital inflows if there are "useful" projects that are eye-catching and truly stand out.