The first love when you were penniless as a student is the most sincere emotion. The colleagues who worked together when you were in a low position or had a bleak future are the purest like-minded people. The subordinates who followed you in the early stage of starting a business or when you lost all your money are the most reliable loyal ones. Similarly, the positions that can be held for a long time when the market plummets are the most worthwhile positions; the assets that you are still willing to hold firmly are the most valuable assets. This is what is called a friend in need is a friend indeed, and true gold is revealed when the market crashes. Obviously, it is always in panic, pessimism, and confusion that we can recognize the true colors of all kinds of people.
The recent crypto market and BTC's pin-pumping is such a process of seeing real gold (BTC) in a big drop. In this big reshuffle, BTC reached a high of $70,000 on July 29 and a low of $49,000 on August 5, with a drop of just over -30%. The highest point of the year and the historical high of $73.8k on March 14 was only a drop of -33.7%.
This is certainly not as good as the -55% retracement of "519" in 2021 (from 64.8k on 4/14 to 29k on 5/19), and even less than the -62% retracement of "312" in 2020 (from 10k on 2/13 to 3.8k on 3/13).
Perhaps the ETF has done something amazing? Surprisingly, BlackRock’s spot BTC ETF remained as stable as a rock despite the sharp drop, with no net outflow for two consecutive days.
Let's look at other assets.
Let’s first look at the king of altcoins, ETH. Although ETH’s ETF has also been approved, how effective is the buff since it has just been approved? Let’s take a look at ETH’s performance during this big drop: from 3563 on July 22 to 2085 on August 5, a drop of -41.5%. It reached the highest point of the year (but not a record high) on March 12, 4093, and the drop widened to -49%.
What about "519" in 2021, the ETH retracement was close to -60% (from 4372 on 5/12 to 1764 on 5/19); and on "312" in 2020, it was close to -70% (from 286 on 2/19 to 87 on 3/13).
Look at the performance of ETH ETF in the recent two-day crash. A solid net inflow! ETF buff is really great, right?
Okay, then let’s find another asset that does not have an ETF buff but has experienced “312” or “519” for comparison.
Take doge for example. It fell from 0.144 on July 22 to 0.08 on August 5, close to -45%. It reached its highest point of the year at 0.229 on March 29, with the decline widening to -65%. In comparison, 2021's "519" was -72% (from 0.74 on May 8 to 0.21 on May 19), and 2020's "312" was close to -70% (from 0.00364 on February 9 to 0.0011 on March 13).
Let's look at another one, uni. It fell from 12 on 6/17 to 4.7 on 8/5, a drop of more than -60% (-60.8%). Pulling to the highest point of the year on 3/6 on 17, the drop widened to more than -70% (-72.4%). In comparison, "519" in 2021 was -64% (from 45 on 5/3 to 16 on 5/19). Of course, 5/19 was not the low point, until 13 on 5/23-24, it was the low point, but the decline did not expand too much, that is, it expanded to more than -70% (-71.1%).
Therefore, through the review and replay of the actual data, we can intuitively draw two conclusions:
1. The 8/5 reshuffle was relatively clean and thorough, at least for the copycats.
Second, the existence of spot ETFs does play a buffering role, such as a buff or a safety cushion. For an impact of this magnitude, it can absorb and resolve a decline of about 20-30%.
That is to say, if there is no ETF, and the intensity reaches "519" or "312", BTC should fall to about $30,000. This point of $30,000 happens to be the current robust support level of the power law. As for ETH, it can be roughly estimated to be around $1,000-1,500.
In addition, as to whether after such a plunge, the market will start to rise all the way, or there will be a risk of a second or even third retracement, the macro factors are uncertain. Historically, the "312" in 2020 was the former case (after September 2020, BTC never returned to four digits, that is, it never fell below $10,000), and the "519" in 2021 was the latter case. If the time and space position of 2024 in the BTC cycle is closer to 2020, then in terms of probability, the possibility of rhyming with "312" may be greater.
Perhaps, not long from now, starting from a certain month, BTC will never return to the current five-digit figure, that is, it will never fall below $100,000. (According to the power law, it should be $70,000. It’s just that humans who are good at decimals always have a special affection for tens and hundreds, so $100,000 is used instead.)
A friend in need is a friend indeed. On-chain detection shows that over the past 30 days, the holdings of the "permanent holder" address have increased by another 404,000 BTC, including 40,000 BTC increased by the US spot ETF.
Then, the Fed was indifferent and calm, while the Bank of Japan, which was "targeted" by the market, held a meeting and spoke. The deputy governor of the Bank of Japan said: If the market is unstable, there will be no interest rate hikes; the current loose policy must be maintained for a period of time; the market is currently very unstable and needs to be closely monitored; no major changes have been seen in the fundamentals of the Japanese and American economies; the market's reaction to a single piece of US data (referring to the unemployment rate) is too large; ...
This statement has a lot of flavor of the Fed's mouthpiece. The younger brother is indeed the younger brother. If you want to launch a sneak attack when the big brother is not prepared, you may have to ask the US military stationed in Japan whether they agree or not, haha~
Only use strength to speak, and use value to reflect! We will help you control the position accurately and grasp the profit. When the market is good, you can make money no matter how you play, but you must know that the market will not always be good! ! ! When to buy and when to sell in the market is important. If you want to get higher returns, the choice is yours, and choice is greater than hard work!
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