To summarize the reasons for yesterday's plunge:
1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell by 40 basis points, oil prices plummeted, and the stock market continued to fall. The VIX index, which symbolizes the degree of market panic, rose 25% on Friday. The VIX index reflects the market's concerns about the future stock market. Investors usually regard the VIX index as a reverse indicator.
2. ETF spot funds outflow, Bitcoin's net outflow reached US$237 million on Friday, while Ethereum's fund flow remained neutral.
3. In the U.S. presidential election, Harris's support rate in the polls has risen above Trump, which is extremely unfavorable to the crypto market. Although the Democratic Party is less hostile to cryptocurrencies, the overall stock market and crypto market are more inclined to support Trump.
After Bitcoin fell below $50,000 twice on Monday (5th), the market was worried that Bitcoin would continue to fall in the evening with the opening of the U.S. stock market, but the market is always unexpected. After 21:30 last night, it began to rise, rising to a high of $56,368. As of the time of writing, the price was $55,558. The decline in the past 24 hours narrowed to about 3%.
Ethereum's trend is similar to that of Bitcoin. It also began to rise after the opening of the U.S. stock market, rising to a high of around $2,543. As of the time of writing, it was quoted at $2,493. The decline in the past 24 hours has narrowed to around 4.5%.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
First of all, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the current price is running on the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and rebounding upward from the lower track, showing signs of recovery. The Bollinger Band opening is wider, indicating that the recent volatility is large. The price rebounded from the lower track and is close to the middle track, indicating that there is a certain rebound momentum, but it has not yet broken through the middle track. If the price breaks through the middle track, it is expected to move closer to the upper track. If it does not break through the middle track, it will consolidate below the middle track or continue to fall.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the KDJ three-line value is around 50, with signs of radiating upward from a low level, and at the same time showing that the bullish force is gradually increasing. If the K-line value breaks through the D-line value upward to form a golden cross, there is room for further increases in the short term. However, if the K-line value crosses the D-line value downward at this position to form a dead cross, the price will weaken again.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 4H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line tend to stick together, and the MACD green bar chart is gradually shortening, indicating that the current short-selling force is weakening, and a short-term rebound may occur. If the DIF line can cross the DEA line upward to form a golden cross, then the rebound trend will be further confirmed, but if the golden cross fails to form, the price will continue to be weak.
First, according to the Bollinger Band indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the price fluctuates between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Band, and gradually approaches the upper track. The price is above the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the market sentiment is bullish in the short term. The current price fluctuates between the middle track and the upper track. If it can break through the upper track, it may rise further; if it is blocked and falls back, it may return to the vicinity of the middle track for consolidation.
Secondly, according to the KDJ indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the KDJ three-line value is hovering in the overbought range and there are signs of a high-level decline. There is a risk of adjustment or callback in the short term. If the K-line value crosses the D-line value downward to form a dead cross, the possibility of a callback will increase further.
Finally, according to the MACD indicator in the Bitcoin 1H level chart, the DIF line and the DEA line are running below the 0 axis and are close to parallel. The price is facing pressure for a correction in the short term. If the DIF line crosses the DEA line downward to form a dead cross, it can be confirmed that a short-term correction has begun. The MACD red bar chart is gradually shortening, which also shows the weakening of the upward momentum.
Comprehensive analysis shows that Bitcoin has the momentum to rebound at the 4H level, especially when the MACD and KDJ indicators show that the bullish force has increased. However, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the price can break through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and whether the MACD indicator can form a golden cross, which are important signals for further bullishness. Bitcoin shows a certain upward momentum at the 1H level, but all indicators indicate the risk of short-term adjustments. The upper track of the Bollinger Bands may become a short-term resistance level, and the price may be blocked and pulled back here. The weakening momentum of the MACD indicator and the fall back from the high level of the KDJ indicator also support this point.
In summary, the great master gives the following suggestions for reference
Short Bitcoin near 56550, target 55220-53890, defense 57200.
Writing time: (2024-08-06, 13:00)
(Text-Daxian Talks about Coins)
