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🤔Currently, I see that Vietnamese people are using many harsh words for the Layer2 group in general, including Arbitrum.
As a holder $ARB , I decided to write a small analysis, based on my own perspective and experience. Partly to add confidence to those on the same boat, partly to see if there are any experts in the Arbitrum system who can provide everyone with interesting insights.
*Date of article: August 6, 2024
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ARB FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS:
In terms of intrinsic value, there is no doubt that Arbitrum is at the top of Layer2 in the Optimistic Roll-ups group, competing with the OP (Optimims) project that many Vietnamese people are following.
I think the Optimistics Roll-ups (ARB and OP) group may still receive more attention and capital than ZK – Rollups (ZK and STRK), at least in this cycle. The evidence is that the active metrics of both users and developers on ARB and OP are outperforming the ZK group.
👉Considering the Layer2 segment as a whole, Arbitrum's TVL is leading with 14.2 billion USD. Please note that TVL data varies quite a bit between platforms, due to the calculation formula and whether or not the restaking assets in the ecosystem are included.
👉Regarding the most important indicators for a Layer2 project, Arbitrum also shows its prominence compared to the average of its competitors. You can follow in the table below! The indicators used for comparison include: capitalization, fees, revenue, DEX volume, average number of transactions/24h, average active addresses/24h...
😎In short, I'm not too worried about the internals of $ARB , as this is a pretty good project. What's more important is the buying and selling zones, to ensure safety and profit prospects. =>>> Please read the next part carefully!!
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ARB TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
🤔I don't have much to say about the ARB/USDT chart because it doesn't fully show the current ARB situation. What I pay attention to is the ARB/BTC exchange rate. 🔥🔥
Some schools of technical analysis (ptkt) will not appreciate the significance of the altcoin/BTC chart, they say only sharks trade this pair, but I don't think so. There are quite a few cases where the altcoin/BTC chart predicts quite accurately the developments in the long term.
👉Specifically, with Arbitrum, the ARB/BTC exchange rate has fallen more than 85% from the peak and is continuously probing the bottom. The positive point is that the 1W RSI is deep in the "oversold" zone (16), and there are signs of bottom divergence. Normally, bottom divergence in a large time frame like 1W promises great growth prospects.
Even in the 1M frame, ARB's RSI is also "selling" (18). This is very rare for top market projects. If you don't believe it, you can check the 1M RSI of projects in the top 20 capitalization for comparison.
👉MACD is also an indicator that needs special attention on the ARB/BTC chart. Also in the 1W frame, MACD was positive for the first time after more than 22 weeks (about 154 days) of negative sessions. Reminding everyone, last weekend was very bad for altcoins, BTC decreased by 1, altcoin decreased by 2, decreased by 3. However, the MACD of the ARB/BTC pair is still positive, showing that ARB is starting to NOT lose value strongly on the Bitcoin exchange rate. In other words, Bitcoin decreased but ARB did not decrease much more => This is an EARLY sign of growth.
💥In short, if the ARB/BTC exchange rate really recovers, then there is no need to pay too much attention to the Bitcoin price, you can be confident that the ARB/USDT price will increase higher than the current time.
💵For those who still want to convert to USDT price for easy handling, I recommend that you should DCA more ARB when the price is around 0.4 USD, meaning the project capitalization is below 1.5 billion USD.
With a top project like$ARB , I expect to start taking profits when the capitalization surpasses the 10 billion USD mark, equivalent to a peak price of 4 USD or more.
