1. When Bitcoin fell to $52,000, most Bitcoin mining machines had fallen below the break-even point

According to f2pool data, when Bitcoin fell to $52,000, only Antminer S21 Hyd and S21, Avalon A1466I, Antminer S19XP Hyd and S19XP were profitable. At $0.07/kWh, most Bitcoin mining machines have fallen below the break-even point.

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2. Last week, digital asset investment products had a net outflow of $528 million

Digital asset investment products saw their first outflows in four weeks, totaling $528 million. CoinShares believes this is a reaction to the US recession, geopolitical concerns and broad market liquidations. Bitcoin outflows totaled $400 million; Ethereum outflows totaled $146 million, bringing the total net outflow of the ETF since its launch in the US to $430 million.

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3. QCP Capital: Crypto market storm caused BTC and ETH to plummet, and volatility surged

QCP Capital pointed out that on August 5, 2024, the crypto market was hit by a storm, with BTC and ETH falling to lows of 49,000 and 2,116 respectively. The massive ETH sell-off by Jump Trading and Paradigm VC, as well as the surge in the front-end ETH implied volatility to 120%, may be the direct cause of this decline. Due to the poor unemployment data in the United States last Friday, the deterioration of the macro economy and the intensification of global risk aversion, market volatility has increased sharply. Despite this, the forward basis and financing rates remain stable.

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4. The three major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply at the opening, and star technology stocks fell sharply

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,070 points, the S&P 500 fell 4.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 6%. Star technology stocks fell sharply, Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 13%, and its share price fell below the $100 mark; TSMC (TSM.N) fell 10%, Apple (AAPL.O) fell 9%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) fell about 11%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 2.4%. The "Big Seven" of the U.S. stock market fell across the board at the opening, with Apple falling 9.6%, Microsoft falling 4.8%, Nvidia falling 14.3%, Google falling 6.5%, Amazon falling more than 8%, and Tesla falling more than 10.85%. By calculation, the total market value of the above seven technology companies has decreased by $1.29 trillion. However, JPMorgan Chase's trading department said that the market's rotation from the technology sector to the outside may have been "basically completed" and the market is approaching a tactical opportunity to buy on dips.

5. WSJ: Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September

The poor employment report forced the Fed to consider a hard landing, and Citi and JPMorgan currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, 50 basis points in November, and 25 basis points in December. CME shows a 78% probability of a 25bps cut in September and a 22% probability of a 50bps cut. JPMorgan expects the Fed to eventually cut its benchmark rate to around 3%, which means that the rate cuts will continue until the third quarter of 2025.

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6. Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds focusing on the Japanese market suffered a record single-day performance loss

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report on Monday that hedge funds focused on the Japanese market faced the largest single-day performance loss in Goldman Sachs' history after weak U.S. jobs data and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike last week triggered a global stock market sell-off. As of the close of Asian trading, the performance of hedge fund managers focused on the Japanese market fell 7.6% in the past three trading days. Monday's 3.7% drop was the largest single-day performance drop on record for Goldman Sachs, wiping out the full-year gains of these hedge funds in the past three trading days.

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7. Wu said this week's macroeconomic indicators and analysis: RBA interest rate decision, multi-country service industry PMI

Summary

Last week, the Federal Reserve kept its policy unchanged as expected, while sending a signal that it might cut interest rates in September. However, the surprise of non-farm payrolls data directly led the market to start trading recession expectations, even though the market adjusted its expectations for rate cuts to 50 basis points in September. There are fewer important data this week, and we can focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision and the July service industry PMI of many countries.

Last week review

●China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 in July from 49.5 in June.

●The Bank of Japan announced that it would raise its policy interest rate from 0%-0.1% to 0.25%. This is the second rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year.

●The number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 122,000 in July, lower than the expected and previous value of 150,000, and the lowest level since February.

●The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.3% in July, the highest since October 2021, and the previous value was 4.1%.

●The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000 in July, seasonally adjusted, in line with expectations for 175,000. The previous value was revised from 206,000 to 179,000.

●The Fed continued to hold its ground at the July FOMC meeting, deciding to maintain the federal funds rate target range between 5.25% and 5.5% and continue to reduce securities holdings. Fed Chairman Powell said that it is reasonable to feel closer to a rate cut, and the FOMC may discuss a rate cut in September.

●The Bank of England cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 5%.

This week's key events & indicators

August 05

●China’s July Caixin Services PMI (09:45)

● UK, France, Germany and Europe July service industry PMI

August 06

● Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision and monetary policy statement (12:30)

August 08

●The Bank of Japan released a summary of the opinions of the board members of the July monetary policy meeting (07:50)

●Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 3 (10,000 people) (20:30)

August 09

●China’s July CPI annual rate (09:30)