Mr. Bao has been saying “Higher for Longer” for more than half a year since the interest rate hike began. What he means is that the interest rate will be raised very high this time, and the interest rate will remain at a high level for a long time, so what will happen?
1 US Treasury bond interest rate
Over the past decade or so, the Federal Reserve would begin to cut interest rates shortly after the end of a rate hike, so U.S. Treasury bond yields would fall after the end of the rate hike, and the yield curve would show a bullish flat pattern with short-term interest rates falling and long-term interest rates unchanged. However, under the condition of "Higher for Longer", the U.S. Treasury bond yield curve will not fall, and the short-term interest rates will remain unchanged, but the long-term interest rates will rise, presenting the current bearish flat pattern.
US interest rate curve-2023-9
3 months 1 year 2 years 3 years 5 years 7 years 10 years 20 years 30 years
The daily line is still in progress. If the most comfortable development is what I said yesterday, it will go up to 28500 first, and then fall back to around 18500 to 19500 from November to December, the 4h line will end at around 25800 next week, and then go up to 28500 in October and end, and do a 3 sell for the 3 pivots. But here we have to observe whether the 21st I mentioned before can stand firmly at 25300. If it does not fall below 25300, it will go up to 28500 according to the daily line. If it falls below the daily line, it will continue to around 18500. The 1h line will end at 25800 around Friday. If the third line continues to fall below 25300 next week, then it will be a large-scale decline. Be patient and observe the meetings tomorrow and the day after tomorrow!
