Time 2024/8/4 23:23
BTC Price 59420 ETH 2845 SOL 137
Ready to buy Target: ETH SOL
US stock market situation:
1: The overall price is in an upward channel. The last round of long-term expansion appeared, and the price is in an overbought state. It fell below the upward trend line and began to fall sharply (large drop, time period, continuous gaps)
2; The callback reached the Fibonacci and 61.8% important position. (PS: The Nasdaq usually fluctuates slightly, and the deep callback position is generally 50%)
3: The market is still on the 120 line. Currently, the 3 line crosses the 60 line.
Thinking: Why did the US stock market plummet? Is this position the bottom? Is this position safe? What are the stop loss standards + risk control standards?
1: Why did the US stock market plummet?
A: Unfavorable economic data, such as employment rate. The presidential election leads to unstable financial policies. Local wars.
2: Is this position the bottom?
Answer: From the chart, it is close to the bottom of the rising channel + Fibonacci and near the 61.8% + 120 moving average.
If it is a callback, this position is most likely the bottom.
3: Stop loss standard + risk control
Answer: Let’s go back to the specific target.
Why buy ETH?
1. Macroeconomic policies
1: August 1 rate hike meeting, overall dovish, September and November rate cut cycle (probability increases)
2: The overall policy of the US election in November is clear, and the campaign team is supporting the confidential circle
3: ETH launches ETF (broadens trading channels)
2. Charts
ETH overall decline 21% (14 days)
1: At the 61.8% Fibonacci extension
2: In the horizontal downward bottom range, the horizontal resistance level has been confirmed 5 times.
Summary: The overall situation is that the market is trading against the trend on the left side, and the market is bottom-fishing. If the market goes down, you will be trapped and hold it for a long time.
Expected bottom: ETH price: 2835 Profit and loss ratio
1:2635 (Fikuo 78.6%) (retracement 6.7%)
2: 2380 (Fikuo 100%) (retracement 16.5%)
3: 1925 (Fiko 138.2% Black Swan Event) (Retracement 32.95%)
profit:
1: Touch 3000 (Fikuo 23.6%) Profit 7%
2: 3100 (Phiko 38.2%) Profit 10%
3: 3560 previous high profit 30:
4: 4000 This bull market high point Profit 48%
Summary: The profit and loss ratio is appropriate, there are many positive factors, and the key position is safe. Long-term holding (it has been listed on the Chicago Stock Exchange through ETFs, and its safety is guaranteed)
Reasons to buy SOL:
1. The macro policy is the same as ETH
Second: It has its own advantages, with a large number of users and a well-developed ecosystem. Its market value is relatively low, only 65 billion. It has great potential for future development.
chart:
1: From July 5, the overall trend has been strong, breaking through the descending triangle and crossing the 120-day moving average, and the trend is stronger than ETH.
2: SOL's best entry position is around 130 (horizontal resistance level, five confirmations)
Profit and loss ratio:
1:118 11% (floating loss)
2:98 (Philippines expanded 132.8%) 28% (floating loss)
3:80 (Philippines expansion 168.2% + box bottom) 40% (floating loss)
1:157 (Philippines 38.2%) 15%
2:171 (Philippines 61.8%) 35%
3:210 (previous high) 50%
Summary: Sol's overall volatility will be relatively large, and the allocation will be 1:2. (If any systemic risk occurs, stop loss immediately and cut losses)
Summary: Make your trading plan, and then trade your plan. (The rest has nothing to do with you, and you don’t need to watch the market every day)
