Bitcoin falls as Fed remains on hold
Since inflation has fallen less quickly than expected, the Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate target range at 5.25% to 5.5% since the end of July last year, the highest level in 23 years. After the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to as low as $62,300 and then rebounded.
As the third quarter draws to a close, most market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If the fight against inflation continues to make good progress, a rate cut could be announced as early as this year's September meeting. This could be a positive factor for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Historically, a lower interest rate environment is good for cryptocurrencies as investors tend to seek higher-yielding assets. Despite the uncertain economic outlook, the prospect of looser monetary policy has boosted positive sentiment toward Bitcoin. However, investors need to be mindful of the risk of price volatility in the short term.
There are about 47 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.09.19)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Market technical and sentiment environment analysis
Sentiment Analysis Components
Technical indicators
Price trend
In the past week, BTC price increased by -0.68% and ETH price increased by 0.88%.
The above picture is the price chart of BTC in the past week
The above picture is the price chart of ETH in the past week
The table shows the price change rate over the past week.
pctChange1Day3Day5Day7Daybtc_pctChange1.12% -2.14% -3.74% -0.68% eth_pctChange-0.91% -3.44% -1.4% 0.88%
Price Volume Distribution Chart (Support and Resistance)
In the past week, BTC and ETH broke down through the area of intensive trading and then rebounded.
The above picture shows the distribution of BTC’s concentrated trading areas in the past week.
The above picture shows the distribution of ETH's dense trading areas in the past week.
The table shows the weekly intensive trading range of BTC and ETH in the past week.
Volume and Open Interest
In the past week, the trading volumes of both BTC and ETH increased after the August 1 interest rate meeting; the open interest of both BTC and ETH increased slightly.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of BTC, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
The top of the above picture shows the price trend of ETH, the middle is the trading volume, the bottom is the open interest, the light blue is the 1-day average, and the orange is the 7-day average. The color of the K-line represents the current state, green means the price rise is supported by trading volume, red is closing positions, yellow is slowly accumulating positions, and black is crowded.
Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility
Historical volatility for BTC and ETH was highest this past week at 8.1; implied volatility for both BTC and ETH fell.
The yellow line is the historical volatility, the blue line is the implied volatility, and the red dot is its 7-day average
Event-driven
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged over the past week, and after the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to a low of 62,300.
sentiment indicator
Momentum Sentiment
In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.
The above picture shows the trend of different assets in the past week.
Lending Rate_Lending Sentiment
Over the past week, the average annualized return on USD lending was 8.3%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12%.
The yellow line is the highest price of the USD interest rate, the blue line is 75% of the highest price, and the red line is the 7-day average of 75% of the highest price.
The table shows the average return of USD interest rate for different holding days in the past
Funding Rate_Contract Leverage Sentiment
In the past week, the average annualized return on BTC fees was 7.9%, and contract leverage sentiment is gradually recovering.
The blue line is the funding rate of BTC on Binance, and the red line is its 7-day average
The table shows the average return of BTC for different holding days in the past
Market Correlation_Consensus Sentiment
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.5, and the consistency between different varieties fell from a high level.
In the above figure, the blue line is the bitcoin price, and the green line is ['1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'algo', 'ankr', 'ant', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'audio', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'bnb', 'btc', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'eth', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx ', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'pendle', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 's nx', 'sol', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wld', 'woo', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx'] overall correlation
Market Breadth_Overall Sentiment
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 42.5% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 20% of the prices were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 35% of the prices were less than 10% from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most of the coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.
上图为['bnb', 'btc', 'sol', 'eth', '1000 floki', '1000 lunc', '1000 pepe', '1000 sats', '1000 shib', '100 0x ec', '1inch', 'aave', 'ada', 'agix', 'ai', 'algo', 'alt', 'ankr', 'ape', 'apt', 'arb', 'ar', 'astr', 'atom', 'avax', 'axs', 'bal', 'band', 'bat', 'bch', 'bigtime', 'blur', 'cake', 'celo', 'cfx', 'chz', 'ckb', 'comp', 'crv', 'cvx', 'cyber', 'dash', 'doge', 'dot', 'dydx', 'egld', 'enj', 'ens', 'eos','etc', 'fet', 'fil', 'flow', 'ftm', 'fxs', 'gala', 'gmt', 'gmx', 'grt', 'hbar', 'hot', 'icp', 'icx', 'idu', 'imx', 'inj', 'iost', 'iotx', 'jasmy', 'jto', 'jup', 'kava', 'klay', 'ksm', 'ldo', 'link', 'loom', 'lpt', 'lqty', 'lrc', 'ltc', 'luna 2', 'magic', 'mana', 'manta', 'mask', 'matic', 'meme', 'mina', 'mkr', 'near', 'neo', 'nfp', 'ocean', 'one', 'ont', 'op', 'ordi', 'pendle', 'pyth', 'qnt', 'qtum', 'rndr', 'robin', 'rose', 'rune', 'rvn', 'sand', 'sei', 'sfp', 'skl', 'snx', 'ssv', 'stg', 'storj', 'stx', 'sui', 'sushi', 'sxp', 'theta', 'tia', 'trx', 't', 'uma', 'uni', 'vet', 'waves', 'wif', 'wld', 'woo','xai', 'xem', 'xlm', 'xmr', 'xrp', 'xtz', 'yfi', 'zec', 'zen', 'zil', 'zrx' ] 30 日的各宽度指标占比
Summarize
In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell after the interest rate meeting, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies increased after the interest rate meeting on August 1. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum both increased slightly. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum both decreased simultaneously. Bitcoin's funding rate rebounded slightly from a low level, which may reflect the gradual recovery of market participants' leverage sentiment towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies have fallen back, indicating that the overall market has continued to fall in the past week.
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