Forbes: The Game of Politics, Polymarket's 26-Year-Old Founder and the $1 Billion Prediction Market
By Nina Bambysheva, Forbes
Compiled by: Luffy, Foresight News
What are the chances that Vice President Kamala Harris will beat former President Trump in November? On a prediction website called Polymarket, thousands of bets give Harris a 39% chance of winning, while Trump has a 59% chance and Michelle Obama and Robert Kennedy have a 1% chance. Will Vance be replaced as Trump's vice presidential candidate? If Vance drops out, a $100 bet will pay off $1,000.
Welcome to the future of prediction markets, where you can bet on almost anything, from the peak price of Bitcoin in 2024 to how fast Trump and Biden will climb stairs to the gender of Hailey and Justin Bieber's unborn child. On Polymarket, about $446 million is currently betting on the outcome of the November presidential election. But in the United States, betting on election results is prohibited because the Commodity Futures Trading Commission considers it to be against the public interest. Based in New York City, Polymarket is a phenomenal prediction market, thanks in large part to the worldwide attention paid to American politics.
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