It is the last day of July in 2024. As of this moment, the trend of the crypto market is not perfect. It seems that the Trump effect is gradually fading, and Harris's popularity seems to be rising. Looking back at the crypto market in July, the German government's selling of Bitcoin first caused a market crash, and later we found out that these were all blunders. The German government's selling was all done off-market. The subsequent Mentougou black swan event continued to ferment until Bitcoin fell to $53,269 on July 5 and stabilized!
With Trump's ear being pierced by a bullet on July 13, the Trump effect began to ferment, and Trump made a lot of promises at the Bitcoin conference, Bitcoin broke through the long-lost 70,000 US dollars in one fell swoop. However, news appeared that Mt.Gox transferred out 0.02 bitcoins for testing, and the US government transferred out 2 billion US dollars in bitcoins, causing Bitcoin to fall to a low of 65,300 US dollars!
However, with the convening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve is about to announce the interest rate and Powell's speech, people's expectations for a rate cut in September have increased significantly, so the current pullback may be a preparation for the pull-up in August!
Grayscale's GBTC holdings fell below 250,000 BTC, and the market value of ETHE's holdings fell below US$7 billion. Grayscale ETHE's Ethereum selling is about to end. Judging from the current price maintained by Ethereum, other Ethereum ETFs are actively taking over.
Grayscale official data shows that with the split of the Bitcoin Mini Trust, as of July 30, Grayscale GBTC holdings have fallen below 250,000 BTC, holding 242,412.6025 BTC, and the asset management scale (non-GAAP) has dropped to US$15,966,236,983.03, with 303,690,100 shares in circulation; Grayscale Ethereum ETF ETHE holdings have decreased to 2,107,763.8055 ETH, and the asset management scale (non-GAAP) has fallen below US$7 billion to US$6,893,968,466.91, with 248,758,500 shares in circulation; Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) holds 344,117.8707 ETH, has an AUM (non-GAAP) of $1,125,523,525.72, and 365,188,500 shares in circulation.
Grayscale's Ethereum outflow is getting smaller and smaller, which is a good signal. I believe that it won't be long before Ethereum will surprise everyone. You can refer to the trend of Bitcoin ETF after it goes online!
Focus this week: At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; at 02:30 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak; at 20:30 on Friday, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls will be released!
The most important thing this week is the interest rate decision at 2 a.m. on Thursday. Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference shortly afterwards. It is expected that the market will fluctuate sharply in the short term. Judging from the current data from relevant institutions, the interest rate will remain basically unchanged this time, and the probability of the first interest rate cut in September is 100%.
And if the US non-farm payrolls data on Friday can meet market expectations, it will promote the positive sentiment of the risk market in advance. As time goes by, the door to interest rate cuts has finally been slowly opened. The present is confusing, but the future must be certain!
