The Federal Reserve's outlook: The July meeting may disappoint the dovish camp, and Powell will only give a preliminary hint of a rate cut in September.
On July 30, the market has already fully priced in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, but a big question at the FOMC meeting on July 30-31 is: how clear a signal will the FOMC send?
Economists such as Anna Wong of foreign media believe that the communication at the July meeting will only provide a preliminary hint of a rate cut in September, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will point out that "if the data develops as we expect," there may be a rate cut. Economists believe that the main reason for the hesitation is that there is a lot of data to be released before the FOMC meeting on September 17-18 - there will be two inflation and employment reports before then, and the data may change significantly. The best time to clearly hint at a rate cut in September will be Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting at the end of August, when he will have an additional month of employment and inflation data.
Economists' expectations for the FOMC meeting on July 30-31 are: although many Wall Street analysts are calling for a rate cut, the FOMC will unanimously decide to keep the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. The inflation data since the June FOMC meeting has been encouraging, while the economic activity data has been slightly worrying. In general, the committee may believe that the risk balance between its two goals - price stability and full employment - is roughly equal.
