Major US banks are at odds with the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs went bankrupt. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in July, and JPMorgan CEO blamed Powell, which indirectly illustrates the fact that the US financial crisis is emerging! Combined with the pricing of the interest rate market, no matter which month the interest rate is cut in the second half of the year, it will not change the fact that the interest rate cut is imminent. This is also the biggest risk of global bubbles!

The current bubble in the US stock market is widely acknowledged, because this bull market was jointly spawned by high US interest rates and the technology bubble. This is mainly reflected in two aspects:

⑴ The leverage ratio generated by high interest rates is equivalent to the US using high interest rates to borrow money from around the world to push up US stocks

⑵The valuations of technology giants are seriously overestimated. Under the guidance of AI prospects, most US technology companies have been given overvalued

Once the U.S. stock market experiences a large-scale decline and the yield on U.S. assets is unable to cover the interest rates from global dollars accommodated by major U.S. banks, the entire U.S. financial industry will face major problems, creating systemic risks!

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in response to bank failures in the United States, in order to weaken the dollar through the expectation of interest rate cuts to ease the pressure on the interest costs of the banking industry. However, if the probability of Trump's election continues to rise, the US stock market will fall further. The assassination of Trump on July 13 gave US stock shorts a reason to unite and act. This will have a great impact on the US financial industry and further backlash on US stocks. When this negative feedback forms a cycle, the real crisis will break out, so the US stock market cannot afford to collapse...

However, in such a mature capital market, the degree of marketization of liquidity is very high. Once a downward trend is formed in such a huge bubble, it cannot be stopped by one or two measures. At present, the crisis is huge.

If Trump wins in November, the U.S. stock market will collapse even faster. Now, all of Trump's friendliness to cryptocurrencies can be seen as canvassing for votes. First, let's see what measures Trump will take after he comes to power. He once said that the Russian-Ukrainian war can be ended in one day. Although it is a bit exaggerated, this is definitely what he wants to do. From his own perspective, Trump is more pro-Russian, and in his heart, Putin the Great is his idol. Secondly, he is mainly focusing on industry, and is more opposed to this kind of hollowing out of finance, puncturing the U.S. stock bubble, and focusing on the U.S. manufacturing industry. Ending the Russian-Ukrainian war also opens up space for the trade war! The first step of the trade war is to increase taxes and protect local production capacity; the second step is to devalue the dollar, which is conducive to exports!

Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are both assets denominated in U.S. dollars. If the U.S. stock market collapses, can Bitcoin remain unscathed? Be cautious and don’t run around naked or rely on luck. Don’t be too aggressive in the second half of the year. Survival is the most important thing!