Trump issues NFT again: How does the celebrity effect affect the crypto market?
On July 17, four days after the shooting, Trump announced two pieces of news that shook the crypto market. First, he announced that he had chosen Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, who supports Bitcoin, as his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 election. Second, he plans to launch his fourth NFT series.
Previously, Trump has released three series of Trump Digital Trading Cards. At the Mar-a-Lago dinner in May this year, Trump expressed great satisfaction with the performance of the first three series of NFTs and revealed that he plans to continue to launch new series. On the 17th, an interview report by Bloomberg confirmed his plan, and the fourth NFT series was officially put on the agenda.
With the release of this news, the floor price of Trump Digital Trading Cards quickly soared from 410 MATIC to over 900 MATIC, an instantaneous increase of nearly 120%, and then fell back and stabilized around 750 MATIC. At the same time, the Trump-related meme coin MAGA ($TRUMP) also rose from $7.5 to $8.5.
It is worth noting that during the NFT dinner hosted by Trump, the series of NFTs had experienced a 120% increase. It has soared again in just two months, especially in the current situation where the overall NFT market is sluggish and the floor price of major projects has dropped by more than 50%. Such price performance is particularly eye-catching. People can't help but wonder if the Trump concept is really the next wealth code?
The first wave of people eating crabs
On December 16, 2022, Trump released his first series of NFTs, Trump Digital Trading Cards. Created by NFT International LLC., the series contains a total of 45,000 NFTs on the Polygon blockchain, showing Trump in images of superheroes, race car drivers, astronauts, western sheriffs, etc.
Two days before the release of this series of NFTs, Trump posted a video on the social platform Truth Social he created, hinting that something big was about to happen. This NFT sale really lived up to its name of "big announcement". According to Opensea data, all 45,000 NFT cards priced at $99 were sold out within 18 hours of going online, with 12,874 minting addresses and total sales of approximately $4.356 million, and quickly topped OpenSea's trend list.
You know, not long ago, when Trump was the US president, he criticized on Twitter that "the value of crypto is as thin as air." However, after failing to be re-elected, he became "crypto-friendly" and even released his own NFT. This aroused people's doubts, and some people thought that he was putting on a show for the next election. Trump's digital trading cards have also received a lot of criticism. Some people think that the pictures of these cards are rough and the expressions and postures are similar. The accompanying event "Buy 45 NFTs to have dinner with Trump" was even questioned as a scam to harvest leeks.
However, it turns out that the doubters seemed to be wrong this time. Despite many doubts, many "uninformed" investors and even bigwigs in the traditional market have entered the market. According to Dune data, a total of 177 people hold at least 45 NFTs. From the price performance, the floor price has doubled by 700%+ in 3 days after going online, and some scarce NFTs have even been sold for 10,000 ETH (about 40 million US dollars), making these buyers make a lot of money and become the first wave of people to try it. It can be seen that the strong appeal and huge potential of NFT gameplay with the celebrity effect will inevitably attract many investors.
In March 2023, the floor price of the first series of NFTs soared again, reaching a maximum of nearly $1,700. The reason was that he was indicted in an investigation by the Manhattan District Attorney for allegedly using 2016 campaign funds to pay hush money to Stormy Daniels. The fermentation of the incident further pushed up the value of NFTs, showing the crypto market's high attention to Trump-related assets.
The ups and downs of the second and third waves
On April 18, 2023, Trump released his second series of NFTs, Trump Digital Trading Cards Series 2. Although the series totaled 47,000 pieces, the price was still $99 per piece, and it was sold out within 5 hours of release, its market performance was not as outstanding as expected. With the release of the second series, the value of the first series also fell rapidly. As of now, the floor price of the second series is about 140 MATIC, which is much lower than the highest point of the first series.
On December 23 of the same year, Trump released the third series of NFTs. Also minted on Polygon, the price is still $99 per piece. What is special is that this series has a total of 100,000 pieces, including 47 portraits of Trump, especially the image after his arrest, so it was named "The MugShot Edition". The performance of the third series is relatively stable. As of the time of writing this article, the floor price has reached 324 MATIC. Although the price of MATIC has continued to fall in the past six months, shrinking the value of NFTs, holders have still gained more than 200%.
The additional benefits of the third series of NFTs are also its appeal. In May of this year, NFT holders were invited to a special dinner, and the VIP tickets came from MugShot Edition. If buyers are willing to spend about $10,000 to buy 100 MugShot Edition NFT cards, they can not only attend the VIP cocktail reception before the dinner, but also receive a unique Ordinal digital trading card limited to 200 copies. In addition, buyers will also receive two VIP dinner tickets, and can bring friends to dinner with Trump and be seated at the VIP table.
At the dinner, Trump reviewed the performance of the first three series of NFTs and made it clear that he had ended his "hostility" towards cryptocurrencies. He even mocked President Biden for not understanding cryptocurrencies, saying, "If you support cryptocurrency, you'd better vote for Trump." This statement further consolidated Trump's support in the crypto community.
Overall, Trump's three series of NFTs have been successful in terms of both value growth and trading volume. No matter which series of NFTs you hold, you can get at least 1.5 times the issue price. Although the details of the fourth series (such as the exact number of cards and the pricing of each card) are not yet known, the market has high expectations for it. If the fourth series of Trump NFTs is released, we may witness another price myth.
Trump's NFT project not only shows the strong appeal of celebrity effect in the crypto market, but also demonstrates the huge potential of the NFT market. Although the performance of each series is different, the overall rate of return still attracts a large number of investors. In the future, with the release of the fourth series, the market may usher in another wave of investment boom, and even bring the next spring to the NFT market that is on the verge of despair. For investors, this is undoubtedly an opportunity worth paying attention to.
More than just NFTs
Trump-themed meme coins also performed well in the crypto market. As the election competition became increasingly fierce, Trump-related meme coins were once close to crazy. The shooting incident brought instant increases of 87% and 53% to Doland Tremp ($TREMP) and MAGA ($TRUMP), respectively. On the 21st, as Biden announced his resignation as the Democratic presidential candidate, a dark Trump meme coin called Dark MAGA ($DMAGA) soared nearly 100 times, and its market value was once close to 83 million US dollars.
As the topic of assassination continues to gain popularity, various Trump-related meme coins have sprung up. According to conservative estimates, there are hundreds of related meme coins, including $MAGA, $DJT, $TRUMP, $EAR, and $FREE. Behind this almost crazy phenomenon, we have to think: What caused the current situation?
What else should we expect?
It is undeniable that the existence of these meme coins has given the "fragmented" bull market a respite to a certain extent. However, is a bull market that is barely maintained by political events really healthy? When the Bitcoin spot ETF was passed at the beginning of the year, the market shouted that a violent bull market was coming, but this was not the case. Several waves of pull-up and then smash-up operations made investors miserable. Spot players were deeply trapped, and contract players were close to bankruptcy.
Compared with the bull market brought about by the ICO boom, the rise of public chains, DeFi Summer and the outbreak of NFT a few years ago, this year's "bull market" does not seem to have enough new narrative support. The market's attention has to turn to the "costless" Meme coins and NFTs that are close to freezing point. I want to say that although we can look forward to them, it is best not to have too many expectations.
The current performance of the crypto market reflects a mentality of seeking quick success and instant benefits. In the absence of substantial technological innovation and application, the market relies more on short-term hot spots and celebrity effects to maintain its popularity. This phenomenon is worth reflecting on. A healthy market requires stable innovation and long-term confidence, rather than repeated hype and short-term crazes.
Final Thoughts
Trump's NFT series and related meme coins have caused quite a stir in the crypto market, but this is not all about the market. We should see the deep-seated problems behind these phenomena and find the forces that can truly drive the healthy development of the market. The future crypto market needs not only short-term hot spots, but long-term innovation and steady development. Investors should also be more rational and should not blindly follow the hype, but should focus on projects that truly have long-term value.
References
https://www.panewslab.com/zh/sqarticledetails/qz85jkpo.html
https://www.blockhead.co/2024/07/17/is-donald-trumps-4th-nft-collection-doomed-to-fail/#google_vignette
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