Ai克-Ekko

Brief Comment: The surge in oil prices has not changed the long-term inflation outlook for the U.S.

Due to the sharp rise in oil prices, market predictions for short-term inflation in the U.S. have indeed been revised upward, and traders no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. U.S. Treasury yields have also risen across the board (U.S. Treasuries have given back all gains since 2026).

However, the long-term inflation expectations for the U.S. seem to tell a different story. Unlike the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the current long-term inflation expectations have broken the positive correlation with oil prices: the 5-year × 5-year inflation swap, which reflects the market's expectations for inflation levels in the future 5-10 years, continues to trend downward.

This indicates that investors still believe that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy can absorb this shock. In summary, the current market pricing reflects the volatility of inflation rather than its persistence. #美伊紧张局势推高油价

The momentum and impetus of BTC determine the market phase
When both are in sync, BTC will transition from the transitional phase to the expansion phase; if they diverge, the rebound will fade, and the bear market phase will be prolonged.
Momentum transition (light blue): Indicates the early startup window.
Momentum expansion (dark blue): Marks the synchronization of impetus and momentum, forming a smoother upward trend.

In January of this year, BTC attempted to shift to a bull market but failed.
It is currently back in the transitional phase with a slight positive impetus.
Startup signals are beginning to show, but sustained positive momentum is the key to confirming the trend reversal.

In other words, the current state requires liquidity injection to continue the positive momentum. Keep an eye on BTC ETF flows #比特币升回7万 .

Wall Street is starting to love SOL❤️

Let's take a look at the data
Solana February core data
Protocol revenue of $26 million, ecosystem application revenue of $87 million (structurally healthy)
Total transactions nearly 2 billion, twice that of all other public chains combined
On-chain stocks and commodity trading volume reached an all-time high (up 50% month-over-month)
HYPE trading volume of $250 million, significant increase in overseas asset trading, accounting for 4% of on-chain transactions
Active wallets of 42 million
Decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume of $100 billion
Stablecoin transfer scale of $1 trillion (30 times that of Polygon)
150 million tokens launched, 100 tokens with a market value exceeding $1 million

The most striking is the explosion of Solana stablecoins
Solana stablecoin trading volume reached a new high of $650 billion, more than double the record before October 2025, ranking first among all blockchains last month.
Stablecoins are one of the core trends driving the popularization of blockchain technology, and SOL tokens have a significant competitive advantage in this field.

Growth stems from mature real-world application value (efficient and low-cost on-chain payments, cross-border remittances, B2B settlements, retail fund flows)
At the same time, collaboration with leading institutions has brought institutional credibility, inflows of funds, and scaled trading volume: Solana's total payment volume surged by 755% year-on-year, with Visa, Stripe, Worldpay, and Western Union all using it as a settlement network.
Since the launch of the spot ETF in July, Solana's price has dropped by 57% (the worst timing in ETF history), but still achieved a net inflow of $1.5 billion with almost no loss; of which 50% of assets come from 13F reporting institutions, belonging to the hardcore investor camp.

Bloodbath
S&P 500: -2.5%
Nasdaq: -2.9%
Dow Jones: -2.6%
Bitcoin: -2.85%

South Korea: -8% (circuit breaker triggered)
Japan: -7%
Taiwan: -5.5%
Australia: -4.7%
Hong Kong: -3%

This is an energy crisis triggered by geopolitical factors (the closure of the Strait of Hormuz leading to an oil supply shock causing oil prices to soar ⬆️) + stagflation expectations (inflation expectations ⬆️) + a triple resonance of deleveraging (leveraged funds forced to liquidate → a vicious cycle of further asset price declines)

A V-shaped rebound requires at least clear signals of partial restoration of passage in the Strait of Hormuz + a significant decrease in the intensity of Iranian counterattacks.

Trump's plan is a four week plan, we shall see🧐.

2021: BTC 67153
2026: BTC 65981
Five years have passed with bull markets, bear markets, liquidations, zero projects, MEME, AI, RWA...
The crypto world has experienced countless stories.
As a result, the price has returned to a similar position.
Many people have gone through several rounds of bull and bear markets, yet they haven't made money.
The story continues; how long do you think you can survive?
#比特币

Brother Sun is going All in on web4!
Web4 (Web 4.0) is the conceptual stage of the next generation of the internet.
It is built on the decentralized foundation of Web3, with the core being AI autonomous agents leading + deep integration of the physical and virtual worlds, achieving a symbiotic network of "intention equals execution."
Internet evolution summary
- Web1.0: Static read-only (1990s)
- Web2.0: Social interaction, user-generated content (2000s-present)
- Web3.0: Decentralization, users own data/assets (blockchain, NFT, etc.)
- Web4.0: AI agents make autonomous decisions and execute; seamless integration of physical and digital (AI + IoT + XR + blockchain)
Main features (mainstream view in 2026)
1. AI Agent dominance: You only say "what you want" (e.g., "help me make money"), AI automatically plans, operates across multiple chains, trades, and optimizes profits without manual intervention.
2. Symbiosis of the virtual and real: AR/XR, digital twins, environmental intelligence, allowing the digital and reality to be boundless.
3. Internet of Everything + autonomous execution: Smart homes, cities, and devices cooperate in real-time, AI agents can independently manage wallets and payment computing power.
4. Official definition by the EU (starting in 2023): Web4 = Web3 + advanced AI + Internet of Things + trusted blockchain + virtual world/XR, achieving complete integration of physical and digital, and intuitive immersive interaction between humans and machines.
The hottest narrative in the crypto space right now is Agentic Web / intelligent economy: shifting from "humans clicking the mouse" to "AI helping me make money." By 2026, we have seen a large number of autonomous agent projects being implemented, but the overall ecosystem is still in its early stages and has yet to form a unified standard.
In summary: Web4 ≈ "You express your intention, AI + chain automatically does it best" intelligent symbiotic internet.

Bank VS Crypto-Incumbents vs Disruptors
Kraken secures Federal Reserve approval, fundamentally changing the landscape! 🔥

Kraken becomes the first cryptocurrency company to obtain a master account from the Federal Reserve, successfully connecting to the Fedwire system for rapid transactions.

Although this approval does not include reserve interest and emergency loan authority, this decision marks the Federal Reserve's formal recognition of Crypto's innovative potential in the financial sector. Kraken's move may redefine institutional trading models while adding significant leverage to its listing plans.

Traditional banks rely on regulatory moats (deposit insurance, comprehensive oversight, etc.) to maintain their status, whereas players like Kraken achieve partial 'equalization' with a lighter framework (Wyoming SPDI + limited Fed access), threatening their payment and liquidity monopolies.

After Kraken Financial received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve, traditional banks have begun to resist.

The American Independent Community Bankers Association issued a warning that allowing Crypto institutions access to Federal Reserve accounts—traditionally reserved for licensed commercial banks—could pose risks to the banking system.

Direct access to the Federal Reserve payment system by Crypto companies means a significant reduction in reliance on traditional banks.

On the other hand: if the Clear Act is passed according to the crypto industry's demands, it could allow third-party platforms/exchanges to provide yields (similar to the current Coinbase USDC yield service). The banking industry strongly opposes this, while Trump expressed support for the crypto industry in statements made yesterday.

In summary, Kraken's connection to the Federal Reserve system is a tactical victory in the crypto payment realm; while stablecoin yields represent the strategic main battleground #特朗普15%全球关税将于本周生效

Iran's crypto outflow surged by 700%—this signal is far more significant than most people imagine.

According to a report by blockchain analysis firm Elliptic, just minutes after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes, the outflow of funds from Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange, Nobitex, surged by approximately 700%.
Tracking data shows that these funds are flowing to overseas exchanges—this is typical capital flight behavior.

Looking at the bigger picture:
Nobitex is not a small platform. In 2025, its cryptocurrency trading volume is approximately $7.2 billion, serving over 11 million users.

In a sanctioned economy, this is a significant financial infrastructure.

• December 2025: $1 ≈ 42,000 rials
• Early March 2026: $1 ≈ 1,314,000 rials
• Depreciation rate: about 30 times / 96.8%

Users can exchange Iranian rials for crypto and transfer directly abroad, completely bypassing the traditional banking system.

This is the real picture of real-time capital reallocation under geopolitical pressure.

When risks rise, liquidity does not seek permission—
it flows directly on-chain.