As the Ethereum spot ETF is about to be launched, market maker Wintermute and research institution Kaiko have made predictions, agreeing that the initial demand for the ETFs may be lower than expected, and the capital inflow within one year will even be far less than the inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF in half a year. quantity.
Kaiko: Trader confidence in Ethereum ETFs is waning
Will Cai, head of the Kaiko index department, pointed out in a research report yesterday (22) that the demand for the Ethereum futures ETF launched in the United States at the end of last year was sluggish, because most traders focused on the launch of spot ETFs, hoping to quickly accumulate Accumulated assets.
ETH price action ahead of spot ETF approval
While it may take months for full demand to fully materialize, ETH prices are likely to be quite "sensitive" to inflows and exhibit high volatility during the first few days of trading.
Meanwhile, ETH’s implied volatility surged over the weekend, rising from 59% to 67% for the most recent expiring contract (July 26):
ETH Implied Volatility
This demonstrates the lack of confidence among traders in the listing of an Ethereum spot ETF, as they are willing to shell out more additional funds to hedge their bets.
Wintermute: ETH price could rise by up to 24% in a year
Also less optimistic than Kaiko about the demand performance of the Ethereum spot ETF is cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute, who also expressed a similar view in a market report on Monday.
The firm expects the Ethereum spot ETF to generate approximately $3.2 billion to $4 billion in inflows in its first year after opening for trading:
We think demand for the Ethereum spot ETF is likely to be much lower than expected, with the figure being just 38% of the inflows into the Bitcoin spot ETF over six months.
He added, “The total inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the end of this year will reach approximately US$32 billion in assets; in other words, the inflows of Ethereum spot ETFs in the first year will only be 10% to 12% of Bitcoin. "
In addition, Wintermute also predicted the price of ETH, saying that it will not increase by more than 24% in the next 12 months, and summarized the reasons:
U.S. regulators rejected the issuer's request to stake its Ethereum spot ETF and generate income, making buying the ETF less competitive than holding ETH directly.
(Franklin plans to launch an encrypted private equity fund that will invest in alternative coins and provide staking rewards)
Ethereum spot ETF starts trading tonight
Previously, a total of seven Ethereum spot ETFs received final approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday night, with issuers including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, Bitwise, 21Shares and Invesco.
Of these, most issuers’ management fees fall in the 0.15% to 0.25% range.
(The Ethereum spot ETF is officially listed on 7/23! Will ETH stage a "sell the news" market?)
This article Ethereum spot ETF is about to open! Wintermute and Kaiko are bearish: demand inflow is far lower than expected. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
