"On the current dumbbell strategy"
1. Today, I talked about the dumbbell strategy currently popular in the currency circle:
Large coins only hold BTC and ETH, and small coins only play memes. All VC coins in the middle are abandoned.
This is actually from Taleb's anti-fragility concept.
That is to say, in the case of serious mistakes in stock selection, you can still enjoy the dividends of the currency circle.
In the case of correct stock selection, you can still get excess returns.
This can also greatly reduce the anxiety of secondary retail investors.
2. The current market is adjusting its structure. The valuation of the primary market is too high, and there are too many chips launched in the primary market. Not only did this round of currency circles appear, but also mobile Internet in history.
The valuation of the primary market targets supported by VC has been adjusted, which has caused great risks and obstacles for investors in the secondary market to select stocks.
It is a wise choice to abandon such projects in the short term.
3. Giving up vc coins basically means giving up the probability of small coins becoming big coins, which is equivalent to admitting that the bonus period of the currency circle has subsided.
In the long run, I still don’t know whether this adjustment will be accompanied by the end of the bonus period.
But the burst of the vc bubble of mobile Internet overlaps with the end of the bonus period.
4. Early VCs in the bonus period did not look at cash flow or profits.
But in the end, only vcs that valued real cash flow survived.
The currency circle will also move towards this day.
In the long run, any asset will fall into the risk-return ratio curve. The core assets of the currency circle were above the curve before. This deviation in the past 10 years will definitely return in the future.
