One feeling: Compared with the 2016 election, the most noteworthy new story in this year's US election is probably no longer Trump, but Vance.

Trump's story, to some extent, is an old story we are already familiar with: the American lower white working class, frustrated in the process of globalization, and the reconciliation with a crazy political newcomer, coupled with the discourse of cultural conservatism. After four years in power, he lost the election and stepped down, and Biden came on the stage. At that time, many people lamented that the free world was back, and although democracy had its crazy moments, it still had its resilience. The wishful thinking in my heart was that although Trump was crazy, it would only be a moment in the historical cycle, a flash of a meteor, and an accident.

The emergence of Vance shattered this illusion. The rise of Vance is a new story in 2024.

This is a story about defection. Many people have talked about his origins, from the poor working class in Ohio, to joining the army overseas, and studying at Yale Law School. He wrote about his growth experience in the book "Hillbilly Elegy", which was published in 2016. At that time, he was still a staunch critic of Trump. But eight years later, he has transformed into Trump's most loyal supporter and the designated successor of the MAGA movement. Trump likes his former critics to kneel to him, because these people are often more radical and loyal after the transformation, and Vance may be the one who kneels the deepest among them. His transformation may have an element of political speculation, but it is not completely against his heart. It represents a certain change in the tide of the times. Americans like Vance, who were deeply oppressed by class in their childhood and achieved class leap through self-effort, and who have been educated in progressivism and racism in Ivy League universities, no longer believe that the left-wing movement represented by the Democratic Party can safeguard the interests of the lower-class people in the United States, and that the seemingly crazy Trump is the solution to these problems. If in 2016 people still attributed it to the information cocoon, the blindness of the working class, the narrow-mindedness of the lower-class white people, and the manipulation of politicians, by 2024 they have to admit that nothing is accidental, everything is inevitable.

This is also a story about the rejuvenation of populism. Vance is only 39 years old and has a long political life ahead of him. He will continue to be active in American politics in some form for at least the next 30 years. In other words, a younger alternative to Trump has emerged. In American culture, there is an almost superstitious worship of vitality. Biden is old and weak, almost humiliated. Trump was assassinated and survived, his face was stained with blood, and he was praised. The emergence of Vance will undoubtedly extend the life of this movement. This is a new form of populism. In the past, when people talked about populist leaders, they might think of Trump, Orban, and Berlusconi, all of whom were old men. But now, a new trend is emerging around the world: populist politicians are becoming younger and are often more radical than their predecessors. For example, in the Netherlands, the familiar veteran populist politician Wilders is no longer the most radical in politics, and often has to "give way" to the new populist politician Thierry Baudet, who was born in the 1980s. The rejuvenation of populist politicians also represents the rejuvenation of populist voters. They are able to use younger words, package more radical ideas, and attract more loyal audiences.

This is also a story about the concentration of power. In the past eight years, the Republican Party has almost become Trump's party. In 2016, Trump, who entered the political arena as a newcomer, had to choose Pence, who was very different from him in all aspects, as his running mate. He still needed to reduce the resistance within the party through a partner like Pence who was supported by the Republican establishment. But by 2024, Trump had completely completed his control over the Republican Party and was no longer afraid. In terms of qualifications, fame, eloquence, and political stance, Vance is not the best candidate in the Republican Party, but he is loyal enough. He gained trust with his absolute loyalty to Trump. For Trump, this year's election has finally become an election of "whoever he wants to elect". And if we look at the current balance of power in several power organs in the United States, if Trump is re-elected, it may also become a term of "he (almost) can do whatever he wants".

It's hard to imagine that this wouldn't be a disaster for the world at large.