Bullish? Or is it a trap?
Is BTC ready to break out of the 4-month range?
This week, BTC's price action remained resilient, holding above $60,000 despite a sharp drop in the U.S. stock market.
In addition, a tailwind is beginning to form in the second half of 2024 that could push BTC to a new all-time high. BTC has been hovering in the $60,000 to $71,000 range since March, but the sideways trend may soon end.
Based on historical data, a breakout of the $60,000 to $71,000 range is possible in September.
"If history repeats itself, Bitcoin will break out of the re-accumulation range in September 2024."
The prediction is based on the sideways trend after the halving event. If the historical trend repeats itself, this consolidation period may end in September.
The growth of stablecoins has fallen sharply in the first half of 2024, supporting the prospect of the above bullish breakout. “Stablecoin flows into crypto markets are positive again! This is a very bullish development and historically coincides with Bitcoin rallies.” The growth of stablecoins means that market participants can prepare for bids when sentiment improves.
All eyes are on the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. More than 90% of interest rate traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at the next Fed decision in late July. In September, the probability of a rate cut is 93%.
A rate cut could spur Bitcoin gains. If pro-crypto candidate Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, Bitcoin will have the potential to rise further. However, the signs of a rate cut in September are not so clear.
According to Bloomberg, Trump warned Fed Chairman Powell not to cut rates before November to avoid giving Biden an advantage. “The Fed should avoid cutting rates before the November election to give the economy and Biden a boost.”
It remains to be seen whether Powell will take this warning seriously and weaken market expectations.
At the same time, despite the strong price trend, the market remains bullish, with a BTC price target of $100,000 by the end of the year.
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