According to Jinshi Data, due to tighter profit margins and challenging macroeconomic backgrounds, foreign exchange and interest rate trading revenues of global banks are expected to hit the lowest level since the pandemic. According to Coalition Greenwich data, more than 250 companies are expected to earn $32 billion in revenue from G10 interest rate trading and $16.7 billion in currency trading, down 17% and 9% from last year, respectively.
The unexpected economic data hit bets on rate cuts by major central banks around the world, and investors' confidence in major macro forecasts declined. The U.S. presidential election and the unwinding of the yen funding carry trade also made the market uneasy. Coalition Greenwich's global macro market director said that 2024 is a year of wait-and-see, and hedge fund activity has declined.
