According to Jinshi Data, Bank of Montreal believes that the recent storm has limited impact on inflation data, and the market has a significant bias in core inflation. The market predicts that the core CPI monthly rate will rise by 0.3% this month, but there may be an unexpected upward trend.
If inflation was already rising before the Republicans won, tariffs and potential trade conflicts could exacerbate it. While the targeted tariffs may not push up prices, this assumption affects U.S. interest rate market sentiment.
The bank predicts that the unexpected rise in October inflation data may have a significant impact on U.S. Treasury yields and is a direct factor in pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above the 4.50% threshold.
