How high can Bitcoin go in this bull market?
As Bitcoin rebounds from below $54,000, one analyst looks at the historical data of Bitcoin miner capitulation and predicts that the high of this bull market may fall around $220,000.
According to "Cointelegraph", cryptocurrency analyst Cryptonary published an article yesterday pointing out that based on the trend of past halving bull market cycles, whenever the surrender period of miners ends after halving, it usually enters the craziest stage of the bull market.
The wave of miner capitulation after the halving refers to miners choosing to sell Bitcoin on a large scale in exchange for cash, and at the same time lowering prices to sell mining machines, triggering further selling pressure in the market. According to the Bitcoin Hashband historical chart, in 2012, 2016 and 2020, after the market experienced miners’ selling periods, they all reached the peak of the bull market, with cumulative increases of 5,110%, 3,346% and 591% respectively.
Source: X/Cryptonary
Bitcoin Miner Hashband Historical Trends
Analysts pointed out that if the current miner sell-off period is about to end, based on historical data and the current price of $64,700, as well as the exponential decay model, the highest point of this bull market may fall at $223,000.
Analyst: If it remains stable at 65,000, it may hit 100,000
Well-known analyst Michael van de Poppe said yesterday (17th) that if Bitcoin can break through and hold above $65,000, and there is a steady inflow of institutional funds, it may climb to $100,000.
SpotOnChain data shows that the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has had net inflows for eight consecutive days, temporarily getting rid of the blood loss between May and June. Net inflows on July 16 were $422 million, the highest single-day net inflow since the end of June.
Source: SpotOnChain U.S. Bitcoin Spot ETF Thirty-Day Fund Flow
Analyst: $69,000 could become new support
Independent analyst Cryptocon also pointed out that Bitcoin’s price trend continues to move towards the second stage of the bull market, and shared a chart showing that Bitcoin price has repeatedly tested the 2021 historical high resistance level ($69,000), which is the same as in 2017. It's the same situation in a bull market.
Cryptocon believes that Bitcoin may convert it into a support level after breaking through around $69,000 and officially enter a parabolic surge trend, continuing to hit new highs:
“I don’t know about you, but I don’t want to miss all the price action between this point and the top area of the MVRV-Z cycle!”
According to CoinGlass, the Bitcoin MVRV-Z score is an indicator to determine whether it is currently overvalued or undervalued. The calculation formula is: (circulation market value - realized market value) / Standard Deviation (circulation market value). If the score is too high, it means that the market value of Bitcoin is overvalued relative to its actual value, which is detrimental to future market performance. On the contrary, it is undervalued.
Source: X/CryptoCon
Bitcoin MVRV-Z support and cycle top trend
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. The analysts’ views are for reference only. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
