On Tuesday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones continued to hit record highs. On Wednesday night, the Nasdaq fell 2.8% and the S&P 500 fell 1.4%. Recently, the US stock market has been volatile, with sharp rises and falls. The Federal Reserve may set a timetable for interest rate cuts at its July meeting.
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Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Circle, said that MiCA actually introduced a lot of banking risks, and the provisions on reserves in MiCA are particularly worrying factors. MiCA requires companies that issue stablecoins pegged to fiat currencies to hold 30% of cash reserves in multiple EU bank accounts, and for important electronic currency tokens, this ratio can be up to 60%. Some experts speculate that the MiCAI regulations will follow and update existing legislation and add more regulations on decentralized finance. The bankrupt FTX and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have agreed to a $12.7 billion settlement, which is currently awaiting approval from a Delaware judge. As part of the settlement, the CFTC agreed that as long as FTX complies with the restructuring plan, the CFTC will not collect any compensation. FTX will pay up to $12.7 billion in compensation to creditors, depending on available funds. A hearing on the settlement motion will be held on August 6. IntoTheBlock said that long-term BTC holders showed confidence last week, and despite concerns about recent transactions involving MtGox and "德" addresses, they still increased their holdings of BTC. Given the dramatic changes in the cryptocurrency space, we have been refining our investment thesis and have concluded that the sector is highly likely to outperform after November. Tom Wan, a strategist at 21co, said that by the end of 2024, the size of tokenized U.S. Treasuries is expected to reach $3 billion, and there is a trend in the industry for DeFi projects' DAOs to diversify their funds into RWAs, including stablecoins and tokenized U.S. Treasuries. JPMorgan Chase noted that U.S.-listed mining companies accounted for a record 26.6% of the global hash rate. The bank said that except for Stronghold Digital, all mining companies have outperformed BTC during this period, and their share prices have risen, with mining stocks hitting record highs in the first two weeks of this month. Matrixport said that two weeks ago, the Greed and Fear Index had fallen to its lowest possible level.
Today, the 21-day moving average is trending upward, which historically typically indicates key lows for BTC. It remains to be seen whether this recovery is sustainable as there are still multiple risk factors that could affect the price. However, the reversal in this indicator suggests that BTC may be heading for a more positive period after its recent decline. Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, said that the price premium of BTC on CB has reached a three-month high, indicating that the cryptocurrency market sentiment in the United States is recovering. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said that the BTC ETF is in the form of "one step back, two steps forward". It took "one step back" in June, but now it has begun to "take two steps forward". On July 15, inflows increased by approximately US$300 million. A total of US$1 billion was added this week, and the total net inflow year-to-date exceeded US$16 billion for the first time. The total net inflow of spot BTC in the first 12 months was previously estimated to be US$12-15 billion, which seems to have been achieved 6 months ahead of schedule. this goal. The Wall Street Journal stated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has told asset management companies that a spot ETH ETF may be launched on July 23. Google Trends data shows that interest in the term "ETH" has increased significantly, climbing from 57 points out of 100 on July 14 to 82 points on Monday; the search query "BTC" rose from 71 points to 76 points. A Citibank research report stated that the net inflow of the U.S. spot ETH ETF may be 30%-35% of the spot BTC equivalent, and the distribution is biased downward. This level means that the net inflow will reach US$4.7 billion to US$5.4 billion within six months. , the beta of inflows and ETH returns relative to such funds may be lower than the analysis results. On July 16, 11 U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of US$422 million, showing positive growth for eight consecutive days. The net inflow in the past three days exceeded US$1 billion. Among them, BlackRock BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of US$260 million on July 16, with holdings reaching 318,120 BTC, worth approximately US$20.2 billion.
Glassnodle reported that large entities have been marked to currently hold about 4.9 million BTC, equivalent to 25% of the circulating supply, with CEX and ETF custodians accounting for the largest proportion. After the German government address sold all its BTC holdings, there seems to be a relief for sellers in the short term, as well as a re-inflow of demand to support the market. CryptoQuant founder ki YoungJu said: MtGox is preparing to distribute BTC to creditors, and retail investors have not yet received funds. Unlike the German government's sale, MtGox's creditors were not forced to sell, and it was not pure seller liquidity. Analyst Alex Kriger estimates that MtGox will cause BTC prices to fall by up to 10%. Even if an immediate sell-off occurs, this distribution will not end the bullish trend because these BTC are expected to respond to market sentiment like existing supply. The Federal Reserve may set a timetable for rate cuts at its July meeting. The Federal Reserve's "third-in-command" and New York Fed director Williams said: If inflation continues to slow in the near term, the Federal Reserve may consider lowering interest rates when it meets in mid-September, but it will not cut interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting two weeks later. Fed Governor Kugler said: If the unemployment rate continues to rise, it would be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates in advance, reiterating the position that "it would be appropriate to cut interest rates later in 2024." Moody's expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as early as the July 30-31 meeting. Moody's Vice President Madhavi Bokil said that the rapid cooling of the U.S. job market and the impact of tight monetary policy are increasing. If the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in July, employment will weaken further, thereby increasing the possibility of a sharp 50 basis point rate cut in September. Moody's expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50-75 basis points this year and another 100-125 basis points in 2025.
CME Fed Watch shows that the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 90.4%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 9.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 0.2%. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones continued to hit record highs; on Wednesday night, the Nasdaq fell 2.8% and the S&P 500 fell 1.4%. Recently, the US stock market has fluctuated like altcoins, and Bitcoin has risen and fallen with it, with large fluctuations. At the end of July, MtGox began to pay BTC (bad news), and the interest rate meeting held by the Federal Reserve is expected to turn to dovish (good news); MtGox's compensation for bad news is "one-time", and the Federal Reserve's turn to good news is "continuous". Another bankrupt FTX is expected to pay $12-16 billion in cash to creditors in October-November, which also needs attention. After MtGox's bad news is exhausted, it will enter the period of waiting for interest rate cuts, and the market is expected to be much better. #山寨季何时到来？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #以太坊ETF批准预期
