Matt Hougan, Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, noted that spot Ethereum ETF inflows could have a larger impact on ETH than on BTC. Hougan predicts that these ETFs will push the price of ETH over time, especially above its all-time high of $5,000.
Hougan states that the first weeks after Ethereum ETFs go live will be “volatile” due to inflows from the potentially $11 billion Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). However, he emphasizes that he is certain that it will reach new peaks by the end of the year. He states that if flows are above expectations, the ETH price could rise much higher.
The US SEC approved eight forms 19b-4 for spot Ethereum ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity and other major investment firms on May 23. However, it is stated that S-1 registration statements must be effective on July 23 before these ETFs can begin trading.
Hougan argues that while spot ETFs will not change ETH's fundamental value, they will offer new sources of demand. He notes that since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, the amount of BTC purchased by ETFs has been greater than that produced by miners. This shows that the price of Bitcoin has risen more than 40% since the ETF approvals, and Hougan expects the impact on ETH to be even greater.
He points out that there are three main reasons that increase the impact of Ethereum ETFs on the price. First, he notes that Ethereum's inflation rate has been 0% over the past year, making the amount needed for large purchases lower. He also states that unlike Bitcoin miners often have to sell their production, Ethereum miners operate at lower costs. Therefore, he emphasizes that he does not expect significant selling pressure on Ethereum.
Finally, Hougan says 27.5% of ETH is locked for staking, meaning a significant portion of the supply is “off-market.” If spot Ethereum ETF products are successful, it would not be difficult for ETH to surpass its previous record, given the entry levels predicted by Hougan.
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