I owe you an article. Some "experts" say that blockchain games are all garbage. Do you agree? As copycats are abandoned, should blockchain games be expected to become the king bomb? I promise to say that not only are blockchain games not garbage, but they are also a money-making tool in this bull market.
From any perspective, the last bull market was a golden age.
Coins that increase by a hundred times, a thousand times, including NFTs, are right at your fingertips.
In this round of copycats, it would be good if we can break even.
Even Bitcoin and Ethereum have increased by more than 15 times in the last round. This round, from bottom to top, it is expected to increase by at most 10 times. Now there is still about less than 3 times of room.
Mining, in the last bull market, whether it was Bitcoin and Ethereum which recovered their investment in 4 months at their peak, or FIL which sold equipment, collected custody fees and conducted mining, it was really a two-for-one deal.
Although private equity has high risks, it is possible to make money out of nothing. The difference of tens of thousands of dollars for a project can be multiplied by dozens of times the profit.
Last round we looked at the sectors, this round we look at the gates.
I invested in private equity in the last round and submitted my resume in this round.
The last round was about mining, and this round is about rights protection.
Why is the gap between bull markets so big? This is the key point!
1. The key to making money depends on liquidity
What is the core point? We need to solve the mechanism of incremental deposit and withdrawal.
In simple terms, it is a liquidity issue.
You may say, oh, that’s not right, isn’t the difference between buying and selling the key to making money?
The price difference is just an illusion of numbers. If you want to cash out, you must consider liquidity.
If funds can flow into a pool freely like water, the pool will not dry up. If funds can also flow out freely, the pool will not be stagnant.
When a project ensures that the amount of water flowing into the pool is greater than the amount flowing out, and that the flow in and out is smooth, this project is a healthy project.
Therefore, liquidity determines whether you can make money and whether the price difference can be realized. How much you can earn depends on whether you can grasp the bigger price difference when you enter.
2. Why is this round of bull market, especially the cottage industry, so sluggish?
This brings us back to the question mentioned earlier: why is this bull market so lagging compared to the previous bull market?
First, let's look at the issue of deposit liquidity. The approval of the ETF not only did not bring a bull market to the cryptocurrency circle, but instead established a new pool that is different from the traditional cryptocurrency circle - the ETF. The ETF pool and the pools of various cryptocurrency projects are reproductively isolated and cannot communicate with each other or have common offspring.
In the last round, whether it was Bitcoin or altcoins, the various pools were interconnected through exchanges and chains, and exchanges could move bricks to each other.
Therefore, in this round, first of all, funds cannot come in, retail investors are blocked in ETFs, and the capital pool of the cryptocurrency circle is dried up.
Secondly, in terms of exit, the first wave of funds for altcoins came from VCs. When the market value was raised high, it was found that there were not enough retail investors to take the orders, and projects were unwilling to take the orders from each other, then in order to make money, VCs and project owners would not hesitate to significantly reduce the difference they "should" have earned to realize the profits. To put it bluntly, they raised the market high and then smashed it hard.
Since there is no interest rate cut, most projects have not been able to apply the fresh water of consumption.
Those entering the market now are only a small number of FOMO retail investors who are ignorant of the consequences, as funds are limited after all.
When there is no large-scale deposit, it is difficult to exit this round of altcoins. Therefore, the difference originally earned by early investors in the altcoins must either be sold at a discount or become stagnant and unable to flow out.
This is the root cause why many large copycat investors have been fleeing since early June when liquidity was lost.
Even if interest rates are cut, it will be difficult to solve the problem fundamentally, especially since a large number of new investors have been attracted by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF. This is another perspective from which I say that this round of copycats has basically been abandoned.
3. Liquidity is unsustainable and will dry up sooner or later
If it were the last bull market, I would fully embrace copycats, because during the bull market, the earlier you enter the market, the bigger the price difference will be, which means the greater the profit you can make. If you exit when the main uptrend comes, it will not be a problem to make hundreds of millions of US dollars.
But in theory, it is impossible for the pool to always have more inflows than outflows. If this is just a problem with the capital pool, it will dry up sooner or later.
Otherwise, even if money from all over the world can flow in, it will not be possible to maintain the perpetual motion of making money.
There are two ways to solve the sustainability of liquidity. The first is to solve the pure capital pool problem into a consumer application problem, that is, someone is willing to spend money and does not require withdrawals. The second is to use periodic wash-outs to turn the corpses of many gamblers into fuel.
Financial markets usually use the second cruel method to solve the problem.
As a retail investor, don’t expect to find blockchain projects with consumer applications. This is unrealistic at this stage. What you need to do now is to find projects that can survive the bull market cycle, have returns that outperform the market, have enough time to exit in a timely manner, and have solved liquidity issues themselves.
4. Why is blockchain gaming still a good choice?
Although blockchain games are also copycats, they can solve the liquidity problem and are already on their way to solving it. If there is another area in this bull market that is still active and making money steadily besides the Bitcoin, Ethereum and MEME track, it is probably the mining industry.
Because mining solves the problem of liquidity, it is also an ideal target for retail investors: with the bull market cycle, the returns outperform the market, there is enough time to exit in time, and the project itself solves the liquidity problem.
How does the mining industry solve this problem?
First of all, you can deposit funds into the mining machine regardless of whether it is oil or fiat currency.
Secondly, because Bitcoin and KAS provide a model, social funds can find a clear interest rate differential, so that funds in the currency circle no longer fight for short-term instant satisfaction, but for medium-term stable returns.
This model provides a 5-10 month payback period, with a higher rate of return than Bitcoin and even higher than traditional industries. It is also more stable than copycat income, and there is cash flow income every day, rather than just a random win and a big reward at the end.
This model attracts capital.
Next, due to the cumbersome operations, a threshold for participation was created, resulting in the emergence of professional custodians, equipment wholesalers, retailers and manufacturers. Each role has its own source of income and is motivated to promote externally. Therefore, whether it is the deposit brought in by income or the withdrawal brought about by a large number of promotions and sales systems, mining has become a stable business at present.
In the last round of Filcoin’s emerging mining industry, it attracted hundreds of billions of RMB in China. For this round of Aleo and Io, although I don’t have the data, several of my friends who sell equipment still made a lot of money.
As for blockchain games, they can almost be completely replicated, and can also have a higher return period. There are thresholds for operation, so multiple roles such as equipment makers, NFT/whitelist sellers, studios, investors, etc. were born to cooperate with CX.
Moreover, the current stage of this round of chain games is not the tail stage of the previous bull market, when funds in the entire cryptocurrency circle were being withdrawn, and exiting was very troublesome.
There is plenty of time in this round and exit is relatively easy.
5. Ideal blockchain game preparation
First, the payback period is 1-2 months;
Second, a closed-loop gaming economic model is constructed within the game, and top players are willing to continue investing to take on the selling pressure from short-term profit-making players;
Third, the project continues to be tested and the currency has been listed. The listing time is set when the main upward trend of the market starts, and the currency will be listed on exchanges with excellent liquidity such as Binance;
Fourth, the playability is not bad;
Fifth, the game project party is not short-sighted, not arrogant, and not stupid.
According to the above standards, you can pass PVP-based games and just play with its platform currency.
Because the income of PVP is highly linked to the winning rate, the pursuit of income will inevitably pursue the winning rate and the technical level. It looks like the proof of work of Bitcoin mining, but the studio is not a mining pool after all. It cannot use human sea tactics to replace scarce technology, and there is no mechanism to easily merge investors' funds, so it cannot provide a stable payback period, so it is insufficient for a business.
The role of PVP is to supplement PVE, or to stimulate the atmosphere and culture of the gaming community in this round.
The casual games on TON are also unable to meet the demand because the available funds are generally limited, leaving no soil for studios to be established. Such games are mainly for bringing heat to the industry.
Then such real dragon projects must be found in PVE games.
6. Which game has the chance to become the most profitable IPFS among blockchain games? Bigtime? Diablo? LUMI? SN? Apeiron? Which one will be the real money-making project?
A strong ability to attract money means that the capital pool is rich and has good liquidity, so we have a greater chance of making money. Even if we enter the market early, we can get a greater difference.
I won’t go into details about the performance of the last bull market. We have tasted the sweetness by deeply cultivating FIL, so we are determined to explore pipeline projects this round. Among them, the blockchain game has the greatest chance of giving birth to IPFS, which is a strong money-making project.
Due to space constraints, the following projects can only be briefly described for their advantages and disadvantages, and there will be opportunities to expand on a specific project.
* Big time
Advantages: The first-mover advantage is obvious, and in fact, the Filecon in the blockchain game I described has already been formed. A large number of Bitcoin miners have poured in without thinking, probably because they have noticed a business model similar to mining.
The revenue has reached hundreds of millions of US dollars, giving the project a lot of room for maneuver.
Disadvantages: The game model is poorly designed, there is no multi-point game, but the game maintains a barely balanced balance by simply controlling the explosion rate and even prohibiting withdrawals. The price of the currency has fallen too badly, and there are too many locked-in shares. To maintain the game, the secondary market needs to continue to buy in, but the low price requires the project party to spend a lot of money to pull up the price. And the playability is poor.
Possibility of True Dragon: Two and a half stars
What will have a chance of mutation in the future is that the project owner has the vision to comprehensively optimize the game, or spend a lot of money to create a second game to prolong its life, instead of forcing participants to use the tidal principle to make money in the market.
* Seraph
Advantages: The multi-point game model in the game is clearly designed and complete, and the game playability is relatively high for dungeon monster players. The game has a heavy asset investment, which makes it easy to establish a large number of studios for mass promotion, and has built a business channel model for studios and investors. OG players are close together. After the game went viral in the third test and was disappointed in the fourth test, the game company reached cooperation with many VCs (currently undisclosed) through the strong money-making ability of the fourth test. According to the current Rush wool-pulling activities, a large amount of data, and the use of BNB, it is very likely that cooperation with BN has been reached.
Disadvantages: The project lacks a strong leader who can control the overall situation. Currently, relying on a relatively good game foundation, the data produced is good, but in order to realize the potential, it requires an excellent planning person with global thinking and sincere teamwork, and avoids a condescending attitude.
True Dragon Possibility: Three and a half stars
There are two possibilities for the future, either the team is optimized, or there is a period of high returns for a period of time after the coin is listed, and when the high returns are over, the game will be short-lived.
* Lumi
Advantages: The multi-point game model design in the game is richer than Seraph. In addition to the conventional big world monsters, dungeon monsters, and leaderboards, there is also a PVP mode, which encourages advanced players to consume the output of low-level players, and introduces NFT404 to try to solve the liquidity problem of game assets, which can be said to be innovative. The project team has a good overall situation. After the first test was completed to convince people with the increase in price, the second test was not too disappointing. Now it has cooperated with Ronin Chain and Sol Chain, and plans to develop multi-chain games. OK has also invested in it.
Disadvantages: The team is too arbitrary and centralized, and the game progress can be changed frequently. The goals originally planned for the second round of testing failed to be achieved, there was not much conversion for new players, and PVP was not launched as scheduled, resulting in low gold farming income. The totems launched by the project party were not empowered in the early stage, and the price plummeted all the way, and there was no effective tray for the qualification of asset migration through empowerment.
However, the project party seems to lack qualitative analysis. For NFT assets, the focus is on whether it is a blind box or a totem, and how to empower NFT without hurting the hearts of asset holders. We hope to see good performance when the market is good.
True Dragon Possibility: Three Stars
* SN
Advantages: The multi-point game model design in the game is almost at the same level as Seraph. Before the game is listed, a human mining system like POC is actually a contribution value system. This contribution value system is different from other games that bet on long-term airdrops. It is also designed to stimulate players to spend money, and wants to create real game consumers. The income from spending money feeds back to the POC system. This closed loop seems to be very confident in the playability of the game. The project responds quickly to problems, and the overall situation of the project party is good.
Disadvantages: In the second test, the combat ship's income became unstable, and the mining ship's income also reached an annualized rate of 200%, but this is a common situation.
The project is not outward-looking enough, and the current popularity needs to be improved. The project data needs to be improved, and the last major exchange is still crucial for the final consumption of selling pressure. The playability is currently low, especially the mining link of the mining ship, so we hope that the subsequent unlocked gameplay can really make players feel a sense of growth and game addiction.
True Dragon Possibility: Three and a half stars
* Apeiron
Advantages: The game cycle is very long, and it has been polished for 8 years. The game itself is not coerced by capital, because it has abundant self-funded funds and rejected BN's weak request, which is of great significance to the subsequent stability of the market. The game has experienced PVP, the sale of two tokens, and the community round of airdrops. Now it is in the stage of guild war. The PVE model has not yet been launched, and the expected revenue is difficult to determine. The game's rpg+rpg+God's perspective belongs to the original game, and it is difficult to find similar games on WEB2. BN, SEVERX, etc. have investments.
Disadvantages: It also imitates the reproduction mode of running shoes, but because the process is too slow, the whole system is not circulated, and the reproduction cost remains high. Now that the currency has been issued, the game should advance faster in theory, but PVE has not been tested yet, so although the game framework is good, the game progress is seriously behind.
True Dragon Possibility: Three and a half stars
